Will OpenAI officially announce an IPO by December 31, 2025? [ resolves 2027-06-01 (363D) ]
When will OpenAI IPO?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When will OpenAI IPO | 2027-06-01 | 95.0% | — | $4.6K | A | KXIPOOPENAI-…Y01 | ||
| When will OpenAI IPO | 2027-06-01 | 91.0% | — | $15K | A | KXIPOOPENAI-…B01 | ||
| When will OpenAI IPO | 2027-06-01 | 91.0% | $9 | $8.8K | A | KXIPOOPENAI-…N01 | ||
| When will OpenAI IPO | 2027-06-01 | 89.0% | — | $7.4K | A | KXIPOOPENAI-…R01 | ||
| When will OpenAI IPO | 2027-06-01 | 89.0% | $64 | $11K | A | KXIPOOPENAI-…R01 | ||
| When will OpenAI IPO | 2027-06-01 | 81.0% | — | $36K | A | KXIPOOPENAI-…C01 | ||
| When will OpenAI IPO | 2027-06-01 | 78.0% | $92 | $34K | A | KXIPOOPENAI-…V01 | ||
| When will OpenAI IPO | 2027-06-01 | 78.0% | $443 | $54K | A | KXIPOOPENAI-…N01 | ||
| When will OpenAI IPO | 2027-06-01 | 51.0% | $115 | $24K | A | KXIPOOPENAI-…T01 | ||
| When will OpenAI IPO | 2027-06-01 | 11.0% | $196 | $9.0K | A | KXIPOOPENAI-…P01 | ||
| When will OpenAI IPO | 2027-06-01 | 4.0% | $22 | $2.2K | A | KXIPOOPENAI-…G01 | ||
| When will OpenAI IPO | 2027-06-01 | 1.0% | — | $191 | A | KXIPOOPENAI-…R01 | ||
| When will OpenAI IPO | 2027-06-01 | 1.0% | — | $127 | A | KXIPOOPENAI-…Y01 | ||
| When will OpenAI IPO | 2027-06-01 | 1.0% | — | $1.0K | A | KXIPOOPENAI-…N01 | ||
| When will OpenAI IPO | 2027-06-01 | 1.0% | — | $1.1K | A | KXIPOOPENAI-…L01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the New York Times | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If OpenAI confirms an IPO before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Apr 1, 2026.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the New York Times" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxipoopenai/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxipoopenai.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxipoopenai") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Y04ZX122G0",
"slug": "kxipoopenai",
"question": "Will OpenAI officially announce an IPO by December 31, 2025?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"openai",
"ipo",
"tech-listings",
"corporate-announcements",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 207494,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "the New York Times",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}