Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-01 ]
Who will IPO before 2027?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 31 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shein · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2026-08-24 | 100.0% | — | $27K | C | KXIPO-26-SHEIN | ||
| Jersey Mike's · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $20K | C | KXIPO-26-JERS | ||
| SpaceX · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $312K | C | KXIPO-26-SPACEX | ||
| Cerebras · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $55K | C | KXIPO-26-CEREBRAS | ||
| Anthropic · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 75.0% | $294 | $195K | C | KXIPO-26-ANTHROPIC | ||
| Oura · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 75.0% | $71 | $2.5K | C | KXIPO-26-OURA | ||
| Discord · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 38.0% | $74 | $43K | C | KXIPO-26-DISCORD | ||
| OpenAI · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 24.0% | $329 | $88K | C | KXIPO-26-OPENAI | ||
| DeepSeek · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $369 | C | KXIPO-26-DEEP | ||
| Kraken · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $18K | C | KXIPO-26-KRAKEN | ||
| Gopuff · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $129 | C | KXIPO-26-GOPU | ||
| Applied Intuition · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $2.2K | C | KXIPO-26-AIN…ION | ||
| Plaid · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $3.6K | C | KXIPO-26-PLAID | ||
| Celonis · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | $16 | $1.1K | C | KXIPO-26-CELONIS | ||
| Deel · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $2.5K | C | KXIPO-26-DEEL | ||
| Mistral AI · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $421 | C | KXIPO-26-MISTRAL | ||
| Ramp · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | $1 | $2.1K | C | KXIPO-26-RAMP | ||
| Rippling · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $990 | C | KXIPO-26-RIPPLING | ||
| Glean · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $522 | C | KXIPO-26-GLEAN | ||
| Beast Industries · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $903 | C | KXIPO-26-BEAS | ||
| Vanta · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | $3 | $623 | C | KXIPO-26-VANTA | ||
| Ripple Labs · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | $3 | $1.8K | C | KXIPO-26-RIPPLE | ||
| Skims · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $453 | C | KXIPO-26-SKIMS | ||
| Stripe · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $4.4K | C | KXIPO-26-STRIPE | ||
| Databricks · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | $3 | $11K | C | KXIPO-26-DAT…CKS | ||
| Anduril · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $0 | $9.9K | C | KXIPO-26-ANDURIL | ||
| Brex · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $667 | C | KXIPO-26-BREX | ||
| Anysphere (Cursor) · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $761 | C | KXIPO-26-ANYSPHERE | ||
| Airwallex · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $389 | C | KXIPO-26-AIRWALLEX | ||
| xAI · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $409 | C | KXIPO-26-XAI | ||
| Bloomberg · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXIPO-26-BMBG |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the New York Times | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Jersey Mike's confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jan 1, 2027.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the New York Times" sources (9)
the New York Times venue-listed ABC venue-listed Bloomberg venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Financial Times venue-listed CNBC venue-listed Reuters venue-listed BBC venue-listed the SEC from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Who will IPO in 2026? | kalshi | by 2027-01-01 | 99% |
| YES | Who will IPO before 2027? | kalshi | 2026-08-24 | 100% |
| YES | Who will IPO before 2027? | kalshi | 2026-06-15 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Discord IPO odds run higher on one venue than the other Polymarket 7% vs Kalshi 12%
- Kalshi prices the Discord IPO before 2027 at 12%, while Polymarket sits at 7%, a 5pp gap.
- Kalshi is the higher-priced venue; Polymarket carries far deeper liquidity at $491K cumulative volume vs $16K on Kalshi.
- Thin Kalshi volume may reflect a small pool of optimistic participants not yet arbitraged down; Polymarket's larger crowd puts long odds against a 2026 listing.
- Resolution requires a completed Discord IPO on a major exchange before January 1, 2027, roughly 10 weeks remain.
- Discord IPO odds trade far apart on the major desks Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 15%
- Kalshi prices a Discord IPO before 2027 at 15%, Polymarket at 6%, a 9pp spread.
- Kalshi is the higher venue; Polymarket holds a substantially larger liquidity base on the lower price.
- Polymarket's high-volume pricing at 6% likely reflects stronger consensus that a 2026 IPO window has effectively closed.
- Resolves YES if Discord completes a public offering before Jan 1, 2027.
- Discord IPO odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 13%
- Kalshi prices Discord IPO before 2027 at 13%; Polymarket at 6%, a 7pp gap with under 10 weeks left on the clock.
- Kalshi sits higher on thin volume; Polymarket holds the lower price against dramatically deeper liquidity.
- Polymarket's larger pool likely reflects broader consensus, Kalshi's premium may stem from a smaller, less contested market with fewer arbitrageurs.
- Resolves YES if Discord completes an IPO on a public exchange before Jan 1, 2027.
- Discord IPO odds split sharply across venues heading into 2027 Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 12%
- Kalshi prices a Discord IPO before 2027 at 12%, Polymarket at 6%, a 6pp gap on a low-baseline event.
- Kalshi sits at the higher price on far thinner volume; Polymarket's price is anchored by nearly $491K in cumulative liquidity.
- Polymarket's deep, well-trafficked market is generally considered the more credible signal on high-profile corporate events with clear binary resolution.
- Resolution requires a completed Discord public offering, listing date before January 1, 2027, leaving fewer than 78 days on the clock.
- Discord IPO odds split across venues heading into year-end Polymarket 8% vs Kalshi 15%
- Kalshi sits at 15% and Polymarket at 8%, a 7pp gap on the same pre-2027 IPO claim.
- Kalshi is the higher-priced venue; Polymarket holds dominant liquidity at $490K+ vs Kalshi's $20K.
- The gap likely reflects audience differences and limited arbitrage incentive given Kalshi's small pool, not a genuine edge on IPO timing.
- Resolution requires a confirmed Discord public listing on a major exchange before January 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxipo-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxipo-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxipo-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
"slug": "kxipo-26",
"question": "Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"ipo-announcements",
"corporate-finance",
"equity-markets",
"2026",
"public-companies"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 31,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 805593,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "the New York Times",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Financial Times",
"url": "https://www.ft.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNBC",
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the SEC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}