Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 30 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $312K | C | KXIPO-26-SPACEX | ||
| Cerebras · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $55K | C | KXIPO-26-CEREBRAS | ||
| Jersey Mike's · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 98.0% | $50 | $19K | C | KXIPO-26-JERS | ||
| Shein · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 86.0% | $133 | $22K | C | KXIPO-26-SHEIN | ||
| Anthropic · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 71.0% | $352 | $177K | C | KXIPO-26-ANTHROPIC | ||
| Oura · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 68.0% | $13 | $1.0K | C | KXIPO-26-OURA | ||
| Discord · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 41.0% | $5 | $45K | C | KXIPO-26-DISCORD | ||
| OpenAI · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 28.0% | $176 | $100K | C | KXIPO-26-OPENAI | ||
| DeepSeek · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 22.0% | $48 | $277 | C | KXIPO-26-DEEP | ||
| Kraken · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | $4 | $23K | C | KXIPO-26-KRAKEN | ||
| Plaid · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $6.7K | C | KXIPO-26-PLAID | ||
| Ramp · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $3.4K | C | KXIPO-26-RAMP | ||
| Airwallex · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | $120 | $1.5K | C | KXIPO-26-AIRWALLEX | ||
| Applied Intuition · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $2.5K | C | KXIPO-26-AIN…ION | ||
| Gopuff · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $129 | C | KXIPO-26-GOPU | ||
| Deel · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $3.6K | C | KXIPO-26-DEEL | ||
| Mistral AI · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $532 | C | KXIPO-26-MISTRAL | ||
| Ripple Labs · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | $2 | $2.4K | C | KXIPO-26-RIPPLE | ||
| Databricks · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | $4 | $17K | C | KXIPO-26-DAT…CKS | ||
| Stripe · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | $26 | $5.7K | C | KXIPO-26-STRIPE | ||
| Rippling · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $970 | C | KXIPO-26-RIPPLING | ||
| Vanta · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $508 | C | KXIPO-26-VANTA | ||
| Celonis · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | $5 | $742 | C | KXIPO-26-CELONIS | ||
| Skims · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $269 | C | KXIPO-26-SKIMS | ||
| xAI · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $1 | $1.6K | C | KXIPO-26-XAI | ||
| Beast Industries · Who will IPO in 2026? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $447 | C | KXIPO-26-BEAS | ||
| Anduril · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $7.3K | C | KXIPO-26-ANDURIL | ||
| Brex · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | $2 | $666 | C | KXIPO-26-BREX | ||
| Glean · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $224 | C | KXIPO-26-GLEAN | ||
| Anysphere (Cursor) · Who will IPO before 2027? | 2027-01-01 | 2.0% | — | $506 | C | KXIPO-26-ANYSPHERE |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the New York Times | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Jersey Mike's confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediately resolve to Yes, even if the company does not start trading until after Jan 1, 2027.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the New York Times" sources (9)
- the New York Times venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- Bloomberg venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- Financial Times venue-listed
- CNBC venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- BBC venue-listed
- the SEC from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Who will IPO before 2027? | kalshi | 2026-06-15 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Discord IPO odds diverge heading into year-end window Polymarket 31% vs Kalshi 39%
- Kalshi prices Discord IPO at 39%, Polymarket at 31%, an 8pp spread
- Kalshi is higher on ~$44K volume; Polymarket carries ~$468K, roughly 10x deeper
- Deeper Polymarket liquidity absorbs more informed flow; Kalshi's premium likely reflects a smaller, less tested pool
- Resolves YES on a confirmed Discord IPO or direct listing completing before Jan 1, 2027
- SHEIN IPO pricing stays near consensus across major desks Polymarket 91% vs Kalshi 84%
- Kalshi prices SHEIN IPO completion at 84%, Polymarket at 91%, a 7pp gap.
- Polymarket carries the higher probability and the larger book, roughly 4x Kalshi's cumulative volume.
- Modest gap likely reflects differing resolution standards or timing ambiguity around listing venue rather than fundamental disagreement.
- Resolves YES if SHEIN completes a public market listing before Jan 1, 2027.
- Stripe IPO timeline carries a premium on the low-volume desk Polymarket 5% vs Kalshi 13%
- Kalshi prices Stripe IPO at 13%, Polymarket at 5%, an 8pp gap with under six months remaining
- Kalshi is higher on a shallow book; Polymarket's price is anchored by significantly larger cumulative volume
- With the horizon closing fast, Polymarket's deep liquidity makes its 5% the more credible near-term read
- Resolves YES only if Stripe completes a public market listing before Jan 1, 2027
- Discord IPO before 2027 carries a premium on one venue Polymarket 38% vs Kalshi 43%
- Kalshi prices a Discord IPO before 2027 at 43%, Polymarket at 38%, a 5pp gap
- Kalshi is the higher venue; $47K cumulative volume vs a dominant $467K on Polymarket
- Polymarket's roughly 10x liquidity advantage makes its 38% the more reliable anchor for this claim
- Resolves YES if Discord completes a public market listing before Jan 1, 2027
- Discord IPO odds carry a premium on the smaller venue Polymarket 38% vs Kalshi 44%
- Kalshi prices the claim at 44%, Polymarket at 38%, a 6pp gap.
- Polymarket carries the lower price with $466,816 in volume; Kalshi sits higher with $48,589.
- Polymarket's much deeper liquidity makes its 38% the more battle-tested signal; Kalshi's higher price may reflect thinner book support.
- Resolves YES on any confirmed Discord IPO filing or listing before Jan 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxipo-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxipo-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxipo-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
"slug": "kxipo-26",
"question": "Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"ipo-announcements",
"equity-markets",
"corporate-actions",
"2027-resolution",
"multi-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 30,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 810881,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "the New York Times",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Financial Times",
"url": "https://www.ft.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNBC",
"url": "https://www.cnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the SEC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}