When will Apple release the iPhone 18? [ resolves 2026-04 – 2027-01 ]
Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | company | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Apple Inc. releases iPhone 18 to the public before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "company" sources (3) · single authority
- company venue-listed
- authorized retailers and distributors of company venue-listed
- Apple Inc. source of record from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 1% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxiphonerelease-iphone18/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxiphonerelease-iphone18 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxiphonerelease-iphone18") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HZ85JTJJW8",
"slug": "kxiphonerelease-iphone18",
"question": "When will Apple release the iPhone 18?",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"apple-iphone",
"product-release",
"consumer-electronics",
"tech-hardware",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 166411,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "company",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Apple Inc.",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "company",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "authorized retailers and distributors of company",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Apple Inc.",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}