Will S&P 500 Total Return Index outperform Gold? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

Will S&P 500 Total Return Index outperform Gold?

kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

kalshi 2 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will S&P 500 Total Return Index outperform Gold	2027-01-01	80.0%		$3	$6.7K		B	`KXINXVSGOLD-…XTR`
Will Gold outperform S&P 500 Total Return Index	2027-01-01	27.0%		—	$2.8K		B	`KXINXVSGOLD-…OLD`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	uncommitted	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 2 markets · share this text

If S&P 500 Total Return Index performs above Gold for the period of 2026 by 0.001% then the market resolves to Yes. Percent return is calculated from the official open price of each asset on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026. For example, if the S&P 500 Total Return Index opens at $5,800 on January 2, 2026 and at $6,380 on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of the S&P 500 TR is +10.000%.

platform source field kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxinxvsgold-26dec31/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxinxvsgold-26dec31.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxinxvsgold-26dec31")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-19C8FVK4P0",
  "slug": "kxinxvsgold-26dec31",
  "question": "Will S&P 500 Total Return Index outperform Gold?",
  "category": "financials",
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "sp500-vs-gold",
    "asset-class-comparison",
    "annual-return",
    "equity-vs-commodity",
    "2027"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 2,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 9471,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "uncommitted_illustrative"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →