Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. BTC? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | For example, Google Finance | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If S&P 500 Total Return Index performs above BTC for the week of 2026 by 0.001% rounded to the nearest 3rd then the market resolves to Yes.
Percent return is calculated from the official open price of each asset on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026. For example, if the S&P 500 Total Return Index opens at $5,800 on January 2, 2026 and at $6,380 on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of the S&P 500 TR is +10.000%.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "For example, Google Finance" ↗ sources (1)
For example, Google Finance venue-listed
recent wire items
- S&P 500 total return over Bitcoin stays heavily favored Kalshi 94%
- Kalshi prices 94% odds that the S&P 500 total return outperforms Bitcoin's annual return in 2026.
- JPMorgan's 10% long-run Bitcoin return forecast, while bullish for crypto, is well below the implied equity return the market is pricing; the Kalshi contract is squarely against the Bitcoin-outperformance thesis.
- Companion Polymarket contract on Bitcoin outperforming Gold sits at 40%, showing crypto optimists see a narrower relative-performance gap against gold than against equities.
- Resolves via Google Finance or equivalent public price sources; Bitcoin's current price near $76K versus S&P year-to-date performance sets the current baseline.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxinxvsbtc-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxinxvsbtc-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxinxvsbtc-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BJPG2Z0CP5",
"slug": "kxinxvsbtc-26dec31",
"question": "Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. BTC?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"sp500-vs-btc",
"annual-return-comparison",
"cryptocurrency-equity",
"performance-binary",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11471,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": "For example, Google Finance",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "For example, Google Finance",
"url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}