Will the S&P 500 finish the year with a positive return? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

Will the S&P 500 be above 6845.5 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

kalshi 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
≥ 6,846	2027-01-01	77.0%		$918	$555K		B	`KXINXPOS-26D…5.5`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	uncommitted	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 1 market · share this text

If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 6845.50, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026. Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.

platform source field kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxinxpos-26dec31h1900/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxinxpos-26dec31h1900.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxinxpos-26dec31h1900")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FK9S1HQHB6",
  "slug": "kxinxpos-26dec31h1900",
  "question": "Will the S&P 500 finish the year with a positive return?",
  "category": "financials",
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "sp500",
    "annual-return",
    "market-performance",
    "equities",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 555173,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "uncommitted_illustrative"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?hl=en",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →