Will a winner be determined in the Virginia 5th Congressional District House race? [ resolved 2026-11-05 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the House member sworn in for VA-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
Library of Congress committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Democratic win the House race for VA-05? | kalshi | 2026-11-05 | 0% |
| YES | Will Republican win the House race for VA-05? | kalshi | 2026-11-05 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Fresh volume returns to the VA-05 House race near 50% 43% · $40K 24h
- Market gives Democrats a 43% chance, just below even, in Virginia's 5th congressional district.
- Kalshi records $40.2K in 24h, 26% of all-time volume, a notable late-October burst.
- Near-50% pricing with rising volume marks VA-05 as a live competitive race drawing fresh attention.
- Resolves on the 2026 VA-05 general election result.
- Republican odds in VA-05 lead at 59% amid a fresh volume push 59% · $48K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Republican win in VA-05 at 59%, modest but clear edge, complementing the Democratic contract at 42%.
- $48K in 24h is 29% of all-time, near-identical volume to the Democratic side, confirming two-sided flow.
- Matched volume across both VA-05 contracts today points to active arbitrage or competing directional bets on the same race.
- Resolves on 2026 midterm election night for Virginia's 5th district.
- VA-05 Democratic odds stay contested as heavy trading tests 42% 42% · $47K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Democratic win in VA-05 at 42%, a near-even race with a slight Republican lean.
- $47.3K in 24h is 32% of all-time volume, a solid single-session share for a competitive House contract.
- VA-05 is a genuine toss-up zone; this volume level reflects active market-making on a genuinely uncertain outcome.
- Resolves on 2026 midterm election results for Virginia's 5th congressional district.
- Virginia VA-05 GOP odds sit near 50% on fresh volume 56% · $44K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Republican winning VA-05 at 56%, a slim margin signaling a genuinely contested race.
- 28% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, a meaningful but less concentrated spike than other House races today.
- Near-even pricing with fresh capital suggests VA-05 has moved into competitive territory, possibly on new polling or campaign developments.
- Resolves on the certified winner of the VA-05 House race.
- Buyers back the Republican in Virginia's VA-05 race 78% · $12K 24h
- 78% odds make the Republican the clear favorite in Virginia's 5th congressional district.
- 24h volume of $11K is 27% of all-time, a notable single-session share for a House district contract.
- Fresh flow at 78% suggests the race is drawing renewed attention, possibly from polling or fundraising data.
- Resolves on certified VA-05 House race result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhouserace-va05-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhouserace-va05-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhouserace-va05-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-J5Q1GQ0MF2",
"slug": "kxhouserace-va05-26",
"question": "Will a winner be determined in the Virginia 5th Congressional District House race?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-house-race",
"virginia-politics",
"2026-election",
"congressional-seat",
"partisan-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 18820,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}