Who will win the North Carolina 11th congressional district House election? [ resolved 2026-11-04 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the House member sworn in for NC-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
Library of Congress committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Democratic win the House race for NC-11? | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
| NO | Will Republican win the House race for NC-11? | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Fresh volume backs the Democratic NC-11 win on Kalshi 86% · $78K 24h
- 86% on Kalshi aligns with Polymarket's read (Spike 2), confirming cross-venue Democratic consensus on NC-11.
- $78K in 24h is 29% of all-time volume, a meaningful but not climactic single-session share.
- Cross-venue price agreement at 86% reduces arbitrage opportunity and strengthens signal reliability.
- Resolves on NC-11 certified House election result.
- Fresh money backs Democrats in NC-11 on Kalshi at 84% 84% · $76K 24h
- Kalshi independently prices Democrats winning NC-11 at 84%, matching the Polymarket read.
- 24h volume of $76K is 29% of all-time $262K, a meaningful single-day tranche on a larger pool.
- Cross-venue alignment at 84% with simultaneous spikes reinforces the Democratic-lean consensus.
- Resolution on NC-11 House race result; see Spikes 0 and 2 for Polymarket cross-reference.
- Democrats priced as heavy favorites in NC-11 83% · $60K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Democratic win at 83%, a strong favorite read in a race drawing fresh volume.
- $60K in 24h equals 40% of all-time volume, concentrated spike relative to contract history.
- NC-11 has been a competitive Appalachian district; an 83% Democratic price implies a significant landscape shift.
- Resolves on 2026 general election night.
- NC-11 Republican odds slip to 23% under fresh pressure 23% · $12K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republican at just 23%, the market treats NC-11 as leaning strongly Democratic.
- $12K in 24h equals 41% of all-time contract volume, a meaningful acceleration for a lower-dollar race.
- Attention on a 23% contract often precedes a news event testing whether the longshot is truly priced correctly.
- Resolves on NC-11 general election outcome.
- Republicans trade near a long shot in NC-11 at 24% 24% · $12K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Republican win in NC-11 at 24%, market assigns clear underdog status to the GOP here.
- 41% of all-time volume, $12K, hit in one day, a notable concentration of activity for a single House race.
- NC-11 at 24% Republican reflects either a strong Democratic incumbent advantage or a recent structural shift in the district.
- Resolves on 2026 NC-11 House election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhousenc11-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhousenc11-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhousenc11-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0N8GC3M3K5",
"slug": "kxhousenc11-26",
"question": "Who will win the North Carolina 11th congressional district House election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"house-elections",
"north-carolina",
"2027-election",
"single-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11506,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}