Transit transits through the Strait of Hormuz, week of June 14, 2026 [ resolved 2026-06-16 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 5 | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | $2.4K | $4.2K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…-T5 | ||
| > 10 | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | $1.0K | $3.6K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T10 | ||
| > 15 | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | $926 | $2.0K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T15 | ||
| > 20 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $1.8K | $3.7K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T20 | ||
| > 25 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $2.0K | $3.4K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T25 | ||
| > 30 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $842 | $2.2K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T30 | ||
| > 40 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $259 | $930 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T40 | ||
| > 50 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $79 | $145 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T50 | ||
| > 75 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $75 | $267 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T75 | ||
| > 100 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $371 | $1.2K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…100 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | IMF PortWatch | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 5 from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "IMF PortWatch" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- IMF PortWatch source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will there be more than 5 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 100% |
| YES | Will there be more than 10 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 100% |
| YES | Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 100% |
| NO | Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will there be more than 75 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jun 8, 2026 to Jun 14, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (10 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Hormuz transit calls consensus anchors in the 20 to 25 range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices Hormuz transit calls with 77% above 20 but only 48% above 25, implying a market consensus range of 20 to 25 calls.
- The Iran deal and announced June 19 reopening support a recovery in transits, but the ladder's sharp drop above 25 signals limited confidence in a full pre-war traffic restoration.
- The year-end Hormuz normalization Polymarket contract at 78% is broadly consistent with this range, both pricing partial rather than full recovery.
- Resolution depends on measured transit data through the Strait; the contract source and counting methodology determine whether partial reopening counts.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhormuzweekly-26jun14/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhormuzweekly-26jun14 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhormuzweekly-26jun14") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YGPLR2RJZ6",
"slug": "kxhormuzweekly-26jun14",
"question": "Transit transits through the Strait of Hormuz, week of June 14, 2026",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"strait-of-hormuz",
"shipping-traffic",
"geopolitical-risk",
"middle-east",
"maritime-commerce"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21630,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 97,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "IMF PortWatch",
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "IMF PortWatch",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}