Transit calls through Strait of Hormuz, week ending August 9, 2026 [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-11 ]
Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 30 | 2026-08-11 | 100.0% | $227 | $402 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T30 | ||
| > 15 | 2026-11-09 | 99.0% | — | $199 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T15 | ||
| > 20 | 2026-11-09 | 85.0% | $129 | $320 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T20 | ||
| > 25 | 2026-11-09 | 79.0% | $226 | $329 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T25 | ||
| > 35 | 2026-11-09 | 59.0% | $402 | $1.0K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T35 | ||
| > 40 | 2026-11-09 | 45.0% | $823 | $975 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T40 | ||
| > 45 | 2026-11-09 | 41.0% | $180 | $243 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T45 | ||
| > 50 | 2026-11-09 | 39.0% | $872 | $1.3K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T50 | ||
| > 55 | 2026-11-09 | 21.0% | $357 | $777 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T55 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-11-09 | 25.0% | $274 | $386 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T60 | ||
| > 65 | 2026-11-09 | 15.0% | $24 | $249 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T65 | ||
| > 70 | 2026-11-09 | 19.0% | $259 | $281 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T70 | ||
| > 75 | 2026-11-09 | 7.0% | $86 | $127 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T75 | ||
| > 80 | 2026-11-09 | 10.0% | $255 | $404 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T80 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | IMF PortWatch | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 15 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "IMF PortWatch" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
IMF PortWatch committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-11 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Daily Hormuz transit calls priced in the 25-30 range on the ladder Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts daily Hormuz transit calls in the 25-30 range by August 31: 61% above 25, 38% above 30.
- Iran's new demands for U.S. war-end and financial compensation keep a full reopening uncertain, consistent with the ladder's wide distribution.
- Polymarket separately puts 57% odds on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, implying a resolution timeline beyond August.
- Resolves via official transit call data through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026.
- Hormuz daily transits implied near 25-30 calls Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies Hormuz 7-day average transits in the 25-30 range: 68% above 25 calls, 40% above 30, falling sharply to 15% above 40.
- Houthi attacks on ADNOC vessels and Iran's conditions for reopening are consistent with the market pricing well below pre-conflict transit levels.
- A companion Kalshi ladder on the 7-day moving average (CM-EVT-JR1WTQ5JH0) shows 53% above 40, a sharper distribution implying uncertainty about which week the data captures.
- Resolution depends on the specific measurement date and transit counting methodology; the named source is unspecified, creating settlement edge-case risk.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhormuzweekly-26aug09/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhormuzweekly-26aug09 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhormuzweekly-26aug09") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-L5QXXGC9M4",
"slug": "kxhormuzweekly-26aug09",
"question": "Transit calls through Strait of Hormuz, week ending August 9, 2026",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"strait-of-hormuz",
"shipping-logistics",
"geopolitical-risk",
"middle-east",
"quantitative-metric"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6965,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 97,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "IMF PortWatch",
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "IMF PortWatch",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}