Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026? [ resolves 2026-06-15 (12D) ]
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 60 | 2026-06-15 | 84.0% | $4.5K | $239K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…701 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-06-15 | 82.0% | $3.5K | $111K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…401 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-06-15 | 64.0% | $17K | $290K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…101 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-06-15 | 47.0% | $9.3K | $150K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…001 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-06-15 | 36.0% | $9.6K | $162K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…901 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-06-15 | 31.0% | $11K | $309K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…801 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-06-15 | 14.0% | $17K | $395K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…701 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-06-15 | 4.0% | $4.7K | $45K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…615 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-06-15 | 1.0% | — | $521 | C | KXHORMUZNORM…401 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-06-15 | 0.1% | — | $1.0K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…415 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-06-15 | 0.1% | — | $2.9K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…501 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-06-15 | 0.1% | — | $2.5K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…515 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-06-15 | 0.1% | $25 | $3.8K | C | KXHORMUZNORM…601 |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Statistical Review of World Energy | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy" No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
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| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhormuznorm-26mar17/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhormuznorm-26mar17.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhormuznorm-26mar17") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-78FY38Z4R5",
"slug": "kxhormuznorm-26mar17",
"question": "Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"strait-of-hormuz",
"maritime-trade",
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"shipping-logistics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1711863,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}