Will global temperature in May 2026 be higher than the historical average for May? [ resolves 2026-06-17 (14D) ]
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1.03 | 2026-06-17 | 1.0% | $1 | $17 | A | KXHMONTHRANG….03 | ||
| 1.09 | 2026-06-17 | 14.0% | $41 | $571 | A | KXHMONTHRANG…060 | ||
| 1.16 | 2026-06-17 | 71.0% | $277 | $5.1K | A | KXHMONTHRANG…130 | ||
| 1.23 | 2026-06-17 | 9.0% | $20 | $187 | A | KXHMONTHRANG…200 | ||
| ≥ 1.3 | 2026-06-17 | 3.0% | $45 | $68 | A | KXHMONTHRANG….30 | ||
| 1.3 | 2026-06-17 | 2.0% | — | $14 | A | KXHMONTHRANG…270 |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration" ↗ No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhmonthrange-26may/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhmonthrange-26may.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhmonthrange-26may") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9G225Q1X25",
"slug": "kxhmonthrange-26may",
"question": "Will global temperature in May 2026 be higher than the historical average for May?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"monthly-temperature",
"climate-measurement",
"may-2026",
"short-term-forecast",
"weather-metrics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5910,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}