Will the NVIDIA H200 average hourly price in August reach a specified threshold? [ resolves 2026-09-08 (47D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $1.5 | 2026-09-08 | 98.0% | — | $8.5K | C | KXH200MS-26A…500 | ||
| ≥ $2 | 2026-09-08 | 99.0% | — | $1.3K | C | KXH200MS-26A…000 | ||
| ≥ $2.5 | 2026-09-08 | 77.0% | — | $415 | C | KXH200MS-26A…500 | ||
| ≥ $3 | 2026-09-08 | 84.0% | — | $863 | C | KXH200MS-26A…000 | ||
| ≥ $3.5 | 2026-09-08 | 59.0% | — | $625 | C | KXH200MS-26A…500 | ||
| ≥ $4 | 2026-09-08 | 60.0% | $149 | $1.3K | C | KXH200MS-26A…000 | ||
| ≥ $4.5 | 2026-09-08 | 48.0% | — | $520 | C | KXH200MS-26A…500 | ||
| ≥ $5 | 2026-09-08 | 32.0% | — | $156 | C | KXH200MS-26A…000 | ||
| ≥ $5.5 | 2026-09-08 | 24.0% | — | $180 | C | KXH200MS-26A…500 | ||
| ≥ $6 | 2026-09-08 | 13.0% | — | $37 | C | KXH200MS-26A…000 | ||
| ≥ $6.5 | 2026-09-08 | 10.0% | — | $19 | C | KXH200MS-26A…500 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Ornn | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour is above $1.5 in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the average value of NVIDIA H200 compute per hour in August 2026, calculated as the arithmetic mean of hourly values reported by Ornn.
Revisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The "USD" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Ornn" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Ornn source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- Fresh volume returns to H200 August average above $2.00 at 99% 99% · $16K 24h
- Kalshi prices 99% odds the monthly average H200 compute price exceeds $2.00 in August.
- 24h volume of $16K is 85% of all-time flow, a near-total single-day concentration.
- Volume surge alongside the $5.49 December contract spike suggests a coordinated repricing read across GPU compute tenors.
- Resolves end of August 2026 based on reported monthly average compute pricing.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxh200ms-26aug/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxh200ms-26aug |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxh200ms-26aug") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0T7SDX2738",
"slug": "kxh200ms-26aug",
"question": "Will the NVIDIA H200 average hourly price in August reach a specified threshold?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"nvidia-h200",
"gpu-pricing",
"august-2026",
"compute-hardware",
"commodity-price"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14014,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Ornn",
"resolution_source_url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Ornn",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Ornn",
"url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}