The H200 compute per hour price by Dec 31 [ resolves 2027-01-08 (169D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 20 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $0.99 | 2027-01-08 | 98.0% | — | $439 | C | KXH200MAX-26…990 | ||
| ≥ $1.29 | 2027-01-08 | 99.0% | — | $1.5K | C | KXH200MAX-26…290 | ||
| ≥ $1.59 | 2027-01-08 | 99.0% | — | $2.7K | C | KXH200MAX-26…590 | ||
| ≥ $1.89 | 2027-01-08 | 99.0% | — | $1.9K | C | KXH200MAX-26…890 | ||
| ≥ $2.19 | 2027-01-08 | 99.0% | — | $1.4K | C | KXH200MAX-26…190 | ||
| ≥ $2.49 | 2027-01-08 | 99.0% | — | $2.6K | C | KXH200MAX-26…490 | ||
| ≥ $2.79 | 2027-01-08 | 98.0% | — | $663 | C | KXH200MAX-26…790 | ||
| ≥ $3.09 | 2027-01-08 | 99.0% | — | $2.7K | C | KXH200MAX-26…090 | ||
| ≥ $3.39 | 2027-01-08 | 98.0% | — | $584 | C | KXH200MAX-26…390 | ||
| ≥ $3.69 | 2027-01-08 | 99.0% | — | $1.7K | C | KXH200MAX-26…690 | ||
| ≥ $4 | 2027-01-08 | 98.0% | — | $2.3K | C | KXH200MAX-26…990 | ||
| ≥ $4.29 | 2027-01-08 | 97.0% | — | $1.8K | C | KXH200MAX-26…290 | ||
| ≥ $4.59 | 2027-01-08 | 98.0% | — | $2.0K | C | KXH200MAX-26…590 | ||
| ≥ $4.89 | 2027-01-08 | 98.0% | — | $2.0K | C | KXH200MAX-26…890 | ||
| ≥ $5.19 | 2027-01-08 | 89.0% | $18 | $4.3K | C | KXH200MAX-26…190 | ||
| ≥ $5.49 | 2027-01-08 | 72.0% | $10 | $3.0K | C | KXH200MAX-26…490 | ||
| ≥ $5.79 | 2027-01-08 | 74.0% | $4 | $3.0K | C | KXH200MAX-26…790 | ||
| ≥ $6.09 | 2027-01-08 | 50.0% | $3 | $2.2K | C | KXH200MAX-26…090 | ||
| ≥ $6.39 | 2027-01-08 | 41.0% | $1 | $3.4K | C | KXH200MAX-26…390 | ||
| ≥ $6.69 | 2027-01-08 | 28.0% | $13 | $1.3K | C | KXH200MAX-26…690 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Ornn | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the value of H200 compute per hour is above $0.99 by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market resolves based on the value of H200 compute per hour as reported by Ornn (https://dashboard.ornnai.com/). Revisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for. The "USD" iteration of the index will be used unless explicitly stated otherwise. If no data is available for the time period by the Expiration Date, all strikes excluding "No data" or "None" resolve to No. Values are rounded to two decimal places unless otherwise specified.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Ornn" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Ornn source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $4.89 by Dec 31? | kalshi | 2026-06-22 | 98% |
| YES | Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $4.59 by Dec 31? | kalshi | 2026-06-22 | 98% |
| YES | Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $4.29 by Dec 31? | kalshi | 2026-06-22 | 97% |
| YES | Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.99 by Dec 31? | kalshi | 2026-06-22 | 98% |
| YES | Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.69 by Dec 31? | kalshi | 2026-06-22 | 99% |
| YES | Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.39 by Dec 31? | kalshi | 2026-06-22 | 98% |
| YES | Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.09 by Dec 31? | kalshi | 2026-06-22 | 99% |
| YES | Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.79 by Dec 31? | kalshi | 2026-06-22 | 98% |
| YES | Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.49 by Dec 31? | kalshi | 2026-06-22 | 99% |
| YES | Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $2.19 by Dec 31? | kalshi | 2026-06-22 | 99% |
| YES | Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $1.89 by Dec 31? | kalshi | 2026-06-22 | 99% |
| YES | Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $1.59 by Dec 31? | kalshi | 2026-06-22 | 99% |
| YES | Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $1.29 by Dec 31? | kalshi | 2026-06-22 | 99% |
| YES | Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $0.99 by Dec 31? | kalshi | 2026-06-22 | 98% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (14 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- H200 compute price staying above $5.49 by Dec 31 locks near certainty 99% · $27K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 99% chance the H200 hourly compute rate stays above $5.49 through December 31.
- 24h volume of $27K is 83% of all-time flow, nearly the entire contract history printed today.
- Surge implies a repricing event in GPU cloud markets, possibly a new rate card or capacity announcement, that validated elevated pricing.
- Resolves December 31, 2026; at 99% this is functionally a settled view.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxh200max-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxh200max-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxh200max-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MYTG9CGV52",
"slug": "kxh200max-26dec31",
"question": "The H200 compute per hour price by Dec 31",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"nvidia-hardware",
"gpu-pricing",
"cloud-compute",
"2026",
"technology-markets"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 20,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 41394,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "Ornn",
"resolution_source_url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Ornn",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Ornn",
"url": "https://dashboard.ornnai.com/compute",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}