Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

kalshi 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
≥ 0	2027-01-01	32.9%		$66	$44K		A	`KXGTEMP-26-P0`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 1 market · share this text

If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027

platform source field

kalshi.settlement_sources → "NASA Goddard
Institute for Space Studies" ↗

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgtemp-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgtemp-26.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxgtemp-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MYCFX29QF6",
  "slug": "kxgtemp-26",
  "question": "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?",
  "category": "climate",
  "tags": [
    "climate",
    "climate-temperature",
    "annual-record",
    "2027-resolution",
    "global-warming",
    "scientific-measurement"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 44104,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 96,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "NASA Goddard\nInstitute for Space Studies",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →