Will OpenAI release GPT-6? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2027-01 ]
Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Oct 1, 2026?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | 2026-05-08 | 1.0% | — | $1 | B | KXGPT-OPEN-26MAY01 | ||
| Jun 1, 2026 | 2026-06-08 | 1.0% | — | $53 | B | KXGPT-OPEN-26JUN01 | ||
| Jul 1, 2026 | 2026-07-08 | 1.0% | — | $156 | B | KXGPT-OPEN-26JUL01 | ||
| Aug 1, 2026 | 2026-08-08 | 2.0% | — | $690 | B | KXGPT-OPEN-26AUG01 | ||
| Sep 1, 2026 | 2026-09-08 | 36.0% | $213 | $18K | B | KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP01 | ||
| Oct 1, 2026 | 2026-10-08 | 62.0% | $410 | $24K | B | KXGPT-OPEN-26OCT01 | ||
| Nov 1, 2026 | 2026-11-08 | 76.0% | $304 | $23K | B | KXGPT-OPEN-26NOV01 | ||
| Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 85.0% | $56 | $19K | B | KXGPT-OPEN-27JAN01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | OpenAI | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If OpenAI releases A model called GPT-6 or greater before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "OpenAI" sources (1) · single authority
- OpenAI source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 1% |
| NO | Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jun 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-02 | 1% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgpt-open/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgpt-open |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgpt-open") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWKH2H1D5",
"slug": "kxgpt-open",
"question": "Will OpenAI release GPT-6?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"gpt-6",
"openai-releases",
"ai-model-timeline",
"2026",
"near-term-forecast"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 85265,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "OpenAI",
"resolution_source_url": "https://openai.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "OpenAI",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "OpenAI",
"url": "https://openai.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}