Will Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms? [ resolves 2026-11 – 2027-04 ]
Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between 1 and 50 governors after the 2026 midterms?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Statistical Review of World Energy | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Republicans hold more state governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting (i) uncontested governorships (those without a scheduled election in 2026) plus (ii) contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract, including the accelerated provision.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy" sources (1)
the Statistical Review of World Energy venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms? | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Republicans staying favored to hold more governorships Kalshi 88%
- Kalshi prices Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms at 88%, a heavily favored outcome.
- Despite voters citing economic pain and trusting Democrats more on costs, the market still assigns Republicans a durable structural advantage in gubernatorial races.
- The 88% governorship probability contrasts with the 75% Republican odds of holding any congressional chamber, suggesting markets see executive-level races as more insulated.
- Resolution via the Statistical Review of World Energy as named source, an unusual resolver for a domestic political question; bettors should note this non-standard settlement authority.
- Republicans stay heavily favored to hold more governorships Kalshi 84%
- Kalshi prices Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterms at 84%, with trading volume up 4,689% day-over-day.
- The surge in trading volume signals fresh market attention as Election Day approaches, consistent with the AP's crossroads framing.
- Multiple companion Kalshi governor contracts, Alabama at 93%, Pennsylvania at 98%, Oklahoma at 90%, anchor the GOP's structural advantage in the tally.
- Resolution via the Statistical Review of World Energy (named source); final governorship counts determined by official state election results.
- GOP gubernatorial edge after midterms stays favored at 74 percent Kalshi 74%
- The Kalshi contract prices 74% odds that Republicans will hold more governorships than Democrats after the 2026 midterms.
- Despite news reports of 'GOP midterm woes,' the gubernatorial market holds meaningfully above 50%, suggesting the market is not pricing a Democratic wave on the state level.
- The 11-point gap between this contract (74%) and the congressional chamber control contract (63%) implies the market sees the gubernatorial map as the more reliable Republican floor.
- Resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy as named source, an unusual resolution mechanic that traders should verify before sizing positions.
- Republicans holding governor edge stays favored at 71 percent Kalshi 71%
- The Kalshi prediction market prices Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms at 71%.
- Trading volume on this contract rose 9,668% day over day, signaling a sharp surge in fresh attention as midterm campaigning intensifies.
- Thune's defensive posture on the Senate majority and voter anxiety over Iran and gas prices are consistent with a competitive but still Republican-favored gubernatorial map.
- Resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy as the named source; standard resolution would reference official certified gubernatorial results post-election.
- Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats stays favored Kalshi 68%
- Kalshi prices Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms at 68%.
- The bullish Democratic narrative from analysts is not reflected in the pricing; the market continues to favor Republicans despite reported Democratic momentum.
- The companion Polymarket contract on Michigan's governor race prices at only 4% for a Democratic win, suggesting the market is skeptical of a broad Democratic gubernatorial wave.
- Resolves via the Statistical Review of World Energy -- an atypical resolution source for an electoral question; users should verify settlement details.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovwins-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovwins-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovwins-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6",
"slug": "kxgovwins-27jan01",
"question": "Will Republicans hold more governorships than Democrats after the midterms?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-governors",
"midterm-elections",
"party-control",
"2026-midterms",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 105717,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}