CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will Bill Lee be the Tennessee Republican Governor nominee by 2026? [ resolved 2026-08-07 ]

kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 3 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Marsha Blackburn 2026-08-07 100.0%
$16K $136K
B KXGOVTNNOMR-…BLA
John Rose 2026-08-07 0.0%
$4.1K $17K
B KXGOVTNNOMR-…ROS
Monty Fritts 2026-08-07 0.0%
$108 $1.3K
B KXGOVTNNOMR-…FRI
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Republican Party not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 3 markets · share this text
If John Rose wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Tennessee Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Republican Party"
sources (1) · single authority
Republican Party committed source
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
NO Will John Rose be the Republican nominee for Governor in Tennessee? kalshi 2026-08-07 0%
YES Will Marsha Blackburn be the Republican nominee for Governor in Tennessee? kalshi 2026-08-07 100%
NO Will Monty Fritts be the Republican nominee for Governor in Tennessee? kalshi 2026-08-07 0%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
  • 2026-08-06T10:36:04+00:00 volume-spike
    Blackburn as TN GOP governor nominee holds at 97% through a volume surge 97% · $54K 24h
    • 97% pricing leaves only a 3% tail that Blackburn fails to capture the Republican nomination.
    • 24h volume of $54K is 25% of a large $214K all-time base, a meaningful, sustained inflow.
    • Fresh activity may reflect a filing deadline, poll release, or a rival candidate's exit.
    • Resolves on Tennessee GOP primary result; near-certainty pricing offers little upside for new longs.
  • 2026-07-30T10:21:41+00:00 volume-spike
    Blackburn locks up the Tennessee GOP governor nod 93% · $55K 24h
    • 93% pricing reflects near-certainty in the prediction market that Blackburn wins the Republican gubernatorial nomination.
    • $55K in 24h is 62% of all-time volume, the contract's heaviest session by share, suggesting a catalyst is in play.
    • Heavy one-sided flow at a high price points to a recent development, filing deadline, poll, or endorsement, cementing her position.
    • Resolves on the outcome of the Tennessee Republican gubernatorial primary.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovtnnomr-2-26/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovtnnomr-2-26
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxgovtnnomr-2-26")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5MV6W6X5T7",
  "slug": "kxgovtnnomr-2-26",
  "question": "Will Bill Lee be the Tennessee Republican Governor nominee by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "tennessee-governor",
    "republican-nominee",
    "2026-election",
    "us-politics",
    "primary-outcome"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 3,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 153705,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 56,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Republican Party",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://gop.com/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Republican Party",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Republican Party",
      "url": "https://gop.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →