Will a winner be declared in the California gubernatorial election by December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-06 (217D) ]
Who will win the governorship in California?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 25 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Becerra · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 82.0% | $173K | $2.43M | A | KXGOVCA-26-XBEC | ||
| Tom Steyer · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 11.0% | $60K | $379K | A | KXGOVCA-26-TSTE | ||
| Steve Hilton · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 9.5% | $27K | $324K | A | KXGOVCA-26-SHIL | ||
| Chad Bianco · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.5% | $3.4K | $21K | A | KXGOVCA-26-CBIA | ||
| Toni Atkins · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | — | $701 | A | KXGOVCA-26-TATK | ||
| Kyle Langford · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | — | $776 | A | KXGOVCA-26-KLAN | ||
| Rick Caruso · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | — | $941 | A | KXGOVCA-26-RCAR | ||
| Antonio Villaraigosa · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | $1 | $1.1K | A | KXGOVCA-26-AVIL | ||
| Stephen Cloobeck · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | $1 | $896 | A | KXGOVCA-26-SCLO | ||
| Eleni Kounalakis · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | — | $1.0K | A | KXGOVCA-26-EKOU | ||
| Daniel Mercuri · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | — | $1.2K | A | KXGOVCA-26-DMER | ||
| Katie Porter · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | $48 | $2.2K | A | KXGOVCA-26-KPOR | ||
| Tony Thurmond · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | $0 | $696 | A | KXGOVCA-26-TTHU | ||
| Butch Ware · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | $1 | $1.2K | A | KXGOVCA-26-BWAR | ||
| Betty Yee · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | $0 | $828 | A | KXGOVCA-26-BYEE | ||
| Michael Younger · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | — | $500 | A | KXGOVCA-26-MYOU | ||
| Leo Zacky · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | — | $1.1K | A | KXGOVCA-26-LZAC | ||
| Nicole Shanahan · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | — | $1.3K | A | KXGOVCA-26-NIC | ||
| Alex Padilla · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | — | $982 | A | KXGOVCA-26-ALEX | ||
| Kamala Harris · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | $6 | $1.6K | A | KXGOVCA-26-KHAR | ||
| Eric Swalwell · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | — | $2.3K | A | KXGOVCA-26-ESWA | ||
| Ethan Agarwal · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | — | $809 | A | KXGOVCA-26-EAGA | ||
| Rob Bonta · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | — | $1.1K | A | KXGOVCA-26-RBON | ||
| Ché Ahn · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | $20 | $1.7K | A | KXGOVCA-26-CAHN | ||
| Matt Mahan · Who will win the governorship in California? | 2027-01-06 | 0.1% | $144 | $3.5K | A | KXGOVCA-26-MMAH |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fox News | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Toni Atkins is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fox News" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgovca-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgovca-26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgovca-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1W66SS63K4",
"slug": "kxgovca-26",
"question": "Will a winner be declared in the California gubernatorial election by December 31, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-governor",
"us-politics",
"2027-election",
"gubernatorial-race",
"state-executive"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 25,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 3186250,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Fox News",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}