Real GDP quarterly growth, Q2 2026 [ resolves 2026-07-30 (57D) ]

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by strike

kalshi 9 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
≥ 0%	2026-07-30	99.0%	—	$1.3K	A	`KXGDP-26JUL30-T0.0`
≥ 0.5%	2026-07-30	95.0%	$445	$1.2K	A	`KXGDP-26JUL30-T0.5`
≥ 1%	2026-07-30	82.0%	$168	$14K	A	`KXGDP-26JUL30-T1.0`
≥ 1.5%	2026-07-30	83.0%	$328	$7.2K	A	`KXGDP-26JUL30-T1.5`
≥ 2%	2026-07-30	81.0%	$133	$8.9K	A	`KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.0`
≥ 2.5%	2026-07-30	49.0%	$645	$13K	A	`KXGDP-26JUL30-T2.5`
≥ 3%	2026-07-30	34.0%	$341	$1.4K	A	`KXGDP-26JUL30-T3.0`
≥ 3.5%	2026-07-30	20.0%	$3	$934	A	`KXGDP-26JUL30-T3.5`
≥ 4%	2026-07-30	8.0%	$11	$289	A	`KXGDP-26JUL30-T4.0`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Bureau of Economic Analysis	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 9 markets · share this text

If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 0.0, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected release of the data. The market will expire at the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for Q2 2026, or 3 months following that expected date of data release. Please note the Expiration Value is the one-decimal value published by the BEA.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Economic Analysis" ↗

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgdp-26jul30/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgdp-26jul30.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxgdp-26jul30")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TTR8WH64R6",
  "slug": "kxgdp-26jul30",
  "question": "Real GDP quarterly growth, Q2 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-gdp",
    "economic-growth",
    "quarterly-metric",
    "2026",
    "macroeconomics"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 9,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 48346,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →