CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,330 EVENTS / ~30,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed? [ resolves 2026-09 – 2027-01 ]

Will bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 2 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Sep 1, 2026 2026-09-01 2.0%
$121
A KXGAMBLINGRE…P01
Jan 1, 2027 2027-01-01 18.0%
$48K
A KXGAMBLINGRE…-27
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff White House not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 2 markets · share this text
If bill that removes/changes the gambling tax provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ("OBBB") becomes law before before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House"
sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgamblingrepeal-26jan/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgamblingrepeal-26jan
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxgamblingrepeal-26jan")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JXL1BSKPS9",
  "slug": "kxgamblingrepeal-26jan",
  "question": "Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "gambling-policy",
    "tax-legislation",
    "regulatory-change",
    "us-congress",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 2,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 48259,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "White House",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "White House",
      "url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Library of Congress",
      "url": "https://congress.gov",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →