Will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem by 2026? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-02 ]
When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems | 2026-08-01 | 2.0% | — | $656 | C | KXFRONTIER-F…L01 | ||
| When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems | 2026-09-01 | 7.0% | $21 | $295 | C | KXFRONTIER-F…G01 | ||
| When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems | 2026-10-02 | 27.0% | $192 | $2.5K | C | KXFRONTIER-F…P01 | ||
| When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems | 2026-11-01 | 51.0% | $3 | $9.1K | C | KXFRONTIER-F…T01 | ||
| When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems | 2026-12-02 | 74.0% | — | $2.5K | C | KXFRONTIER-F…V01 | ||
| When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems | 2027-01-01 | 72.0% | — | $1.2K | C | KXFRONTIER-F…C01 | ||
| When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems | 2027-02-01 | 71.0% | $38 | $8.8K | C | KXFRONTIER-F…N01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | <company> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
At the time of issuance, one FrontierMath: Open Problem has been solved by AI (a Ramsey-style problem on hypergraphs); for the purpose of this market, additional AI models subsequently solving the same problem will not count.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "<company>" ↗ sources (1)
- <company> venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 2% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfrontier-fron/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfrontier-fron |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfrontier-fron") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWFTRVR25",
"slug": "kxfrontier-fron",
"question": "Will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem by 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-mathematics",
"frontier-math",
"artificial-intelligence",
"2026",
"breakthrough-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 25099,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 62,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": "" ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/search?q=" ,
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "" ,
"url": "https://www.google.com/search?q=" ,
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}