Will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem by December 31, 2025? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems?

kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

kalshi 3 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems	2027-01-01	77.0%	—	$5.8K	C	`KXFRONTIER-F…N01`
When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems	2027-01-01	72.0%	—	$6.1K	C	`KXFRONTIER-F…T01`
When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems	2027-01-01	35.0%	$131	$9.0K	C	`KXFRONTIER-F…L01`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	uncommitted	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 3 markets · share this text

If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. At the time of issuance, one FrontierMath: Open Problem has been solved by AI (a Ramsey-style problem on hypergraphs); for the purpose of this market, additional AI models subsequently solving the same problem will not count.

platform source field kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfrontier-fron/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfrontier-fron.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxfrontier-fron")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3RWFTRVR25",
  "slug": "kxfrontier-fron",
  "question": "Will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem by December 31, 2025?",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-mathematics",
    "frontier-math",
    "capability-milestone",
    "problem-solving",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 3,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 20829,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 63,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/search?q=",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →