Who will win the next French presidential election? [ resolves 2027-05-31 (312D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 28 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Marine Le Pen	2027-05-31	35.0%	—	$29K	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…LEP`
Édouard Philippe	2027-05-31	24.0%	—	$5.7K	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…PHI`
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	2027-05-31	11.0%	—	$1.3K	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…MEL`
François Hollande	2027-05-31	9.0%	—	$335	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…HOL`
Gérald Darmanin	2027-05-31	6.0%	—	$6	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…DAR`
Bernard Cazeneuve	2027-05-31	6.0%	—	$4	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…CAZ`
Dominique de Villepin	2027-05-31	5.5%	—	$367	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…VIL`
Jordan Bardella	2027-05-31	5.2%	$1	$3.6K	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…BAR`
François Bayrou	2027-05-31	5.0%	—	$51	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…BAY`
Sarah Knafo	2027-05-31	4.4%	—	$48	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…KNA`
Bruno Retailleau	2027-05-31	2.9%	—	$86	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…RET`
Gabriel Attal	2027-05-31	2.7%	—	$322	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…ATT`
David Lisnard	2027-05-31	2.3%	—	$343	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…LIS`
François Ruffin	2027-05-31	2.0%	—	$51	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…RUF`
Éric Zemmour	2027-05-31	1.9%	—	$34	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…ZEM`
Sébastien Lecornu	2027-05-31	1.9%	—	$42	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…LEC`
Michel Barnier	2027-05-31	1.0%	—	$0	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…BAR`
Xavier Bertrand	2027-05-31	1.0%	—	$0	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…BER`
Valérie Pécresse	2027-05-31	1.0%	—	$0	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…PEC`
Laurent Wauquiez	2027-05-31	1.0%	—	$0	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…WAU`
Élisabeth Borne	2027-05-31	1.0%	—	$0	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…BOR`
Yaël Braun-Pivet	2027-05-31	1.0%	—	$0	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…BRA`
Bruno Le Maire	2027-05-31	1.0%	—	$0	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…LEM`
Carole Delga	2027-05-31	1.0%	—	$0	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…DEL`
Olivier Faure	2027-05-31	1.0%	—	$1	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…FAU`
Manuel Bompard	2027-05-31	1.0%	—	$0	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…BOM`
Mathilde Panot	2027-05-31	1.0%	—	$0	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…PAN`
Jean Castex	2027-05-31	0.1%	—	$0	C	`KXFRENCHPRES…CAS`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Fox News	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 28 markets · share this text

If Édouard Philippe wins the next French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fox News"

sources (13)

Fox News venue-listed
MSNBC venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
Semafor venue-listed
ABC venue-listed
The Information venue-listed
CBS venue-listed
The New York Times venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed
Axios venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
Politico venue-listed

recent wire items

2026-07-08T10:14:29+00:00 volume-spike
Kalshi flows target Le Pen 2027 win at 35% 35% · $12K 24h
- Kalshi prices Le Pen winning at 35%, a notable 8-point premium to Polymarket's 27% on the same question.
- 24h volume $12K is 53% of all-time on Kalshi, confirming broad cross-venue attention today.
- Cross-venue divergence between Kalshi (35%) and Polymarket (27%) creates an arbitrage signal for desks.
- Resolves after the 2027 French presidential election.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfrenchpres-27/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfrenchpres-27`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxfrenchpres-27")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-F4DV339FW0",
  "slug": "kxfrenchpres-27",
  "question": "Who will win the next French presidential election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "french-politics",
    "presidential-election",
    "2027-election",
    "france",
    "political-leadership"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 28,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 41195,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 72,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Fox News",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →