Will the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average drop below 5.75% in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-07 (156D) ]
Will any 2026 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) report a 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage rate below 5.75%?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 5.75% | 2027-01-07 | 13.0% | $65 | $5.2K | A | KXFM30YMTG-2….75 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If any Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) release, between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average is below 5.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation committed source Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) from rules text
recent wire items
- Mortgage rate drop below 5.75 percent stays a long shot in 2026 Kalshi 11%
- Kalshi prices only 11% on the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed mortgage average dropping below 5.75% at any point in 2026.
- Despite the weak July jobs report, the market is not pricing in meaningful mortgage relief, consistent with the broader Fed-on-hold narrative.
- The Kalshi contract at 8% for a Fed cut greater than 25 basis points (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6) anchors mortgage rate expectations: deep cuts are nearly fully ruled out.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation data as the named resolution source, an unusual resolution anchor for a mortgage rate contract worth monitoring.
- 30-year mortgage dropping below 5.75 percent stays a long shot Kalshi 8%
- The Kalshi contract puts only 8% probability on the Freddie Mac 30-year rate dropping below 5.75% in 2026.
- Five consecutive weekly rises in mortgage rates are squarely at odds with a sub-5.75% outcome, keeping the contract a heavy long shot.
- The weak July payroll print (Story 2) raises Fed cut hopes, but 8% pricing shows markets see little chance of a fast enough rate decline.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation, per the named resolution source, note this is an unusual resolver for a mortgage rate contract.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfm30ymtg-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfm30ymtg-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfm30ymtg-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2JCJ075QD1",
"slug": "kxfm30ymtg-26dec31",
"question": "Will the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average drop below 5.75% in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"freddie-mac-mortgage-rates",
"us-mortgage-market",
"interest-rates-2026",
"economic-indicators",
"housing-finance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5169,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}