Will the price of fertilizer this year [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $900 | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $2.9K | A | KXFERT-26-900 | ||
| ≥ $1,000 | 2027-01-01 | 32.0% | $1 | $6.6K | A | KXFERT-26-1000 | ||
| ≥ $1,100 | 2027-01-01 | 28.0% | — | $2.7K | A | KXFERT-26-1100 | ||
| ≥ $1,200 | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $2.2K | A | KXFERT-26-1200 | ||
| ≥ $1,300 | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $245 | A | KXFERT-26-1300 | ||
| ≥ $1,400 | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | $3 | $72 | A | KXFERT-26-1400 | ||
| ≥ $1,500 | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $48 | A | KXFERT-26-1500 | ||
| ≥ $1,600 | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $52 | A | KXFERT-26-1600 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | USDA | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1000 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "USDA" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- USDA source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfert-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfert-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfert-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GKT3491609",
"slug": "kxfert-26",
"question": "Will the price of fertilizer this year",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fertilizer-prices",
"commodity-markets",
"agriculture-economics",
"price-prediction",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14824,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "USDA",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/reports-and-data/agency-reports",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "USDA",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "USDA",
"url": "https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/reports-and-data/agency-reports",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}