How high will the price of fertilizer get this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $900 | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $2.9K | A | KXFERT-26-900 | ||
| ≥ $1,000 | 2027-01-01 | 43.0% | $28 | $5.6K | A | KXFERT-26-1000 | ||
| ≥ $1,100 | 2027-01-01 | 41.0% | $15 | $3.1K | A | KXFERT-26-1100 | ||
| ≥ $1,200 | 2027-01-01 | 32.0% | $10 | $4.0K | A | KXFERT-26-1200 | ||
| ≥ $1,300 | 2027-01-01 | 26.0% | $5 | $558 | A | KXFERT-26-1300 | ||
| ≥ $1,400 | 2027-01-01 | 21.0% | — | $122 | A | KXFERT-26-1400 | ||
| ≥ $1,500 | 2027-01-01 | 88.0% | $14 | $693 | A | KXFERT-26-1500 | ||
| ≥ $1,600 | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | $9 | $55 | A | KXFERT-26-1600 |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | usda.gov | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "usda.gov" ↗ No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfert-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfert-26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfert-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GKT3491609",
"slug": "kxfert-26",
"question": "How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fertilizer-prices",
"commodity-markets",
"agriculture-inputs",
"price-prediction",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17147,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "usda.gov",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/reports-and-data/agency-reports",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}