Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken by 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-08 (169D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement contains no forward-looking guidance regarding the likely future path of the federal funds rate | 2027-01-08 | 97.0% | — | $3.2K | C | KXFEDREFORM-…GUI | ||
| The Federal Reserve Chair does not hold a press conference following a regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting | 2027-01-08 | 49.0% | — | $4.0K | C | KXFEDREFORM-…RES | ||
| A Summary of Economic Projections omits individual participants’ federal-funds-rate projections | 2027-01-08 | 40.0% | $280 | $3.9K | C | KXFEDREFORM-…PLO | ||
| A Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement emphasizes trimmed-mean or median inflation measures | 2027-01-08 | 27.0% | — | $758 | C | KXFEDREFORM-…MEA | ||
| The Board of Governors removes a Federal Reserve Bank president from office | 2027-01-08 | 17.0% | — | $1 | C | KXFEDREFORM-…EMO | ||
| The Board of Governors does not approve the reappointment of a Federal Reserve Bank president | 2027-01-08 | 15.0% | — | $1.0K | C | KXFEDREFORM-…EJE |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement contains no forward-looking guidance regarding the likely future path of the federal funds rate after May 05 10:00 AM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" sources (22)
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- The Guardian venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- South China Morning Post venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Verge venue-listed
- BBC venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- ABC News Australia venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- CBC venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a Federal Open Market Committee post-meeting statement contains no forward-looking guidance regarding the likely future path of the federal funds rate before Jan 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2026-06-18 | 97% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfedreform-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfedreform-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfedreform-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VB6B4LJ482",
"slug": "kxfedreform-27",
"question": "Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken by 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"fomc",
"central-banking",
"precedent-breaking"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12827,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Guardian",
"url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "South China Morning Post",
"url": "https://www.scmp.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Verge",
"url": "https://www.theverge.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC News Australia",
"url": "http://www.abc.net.au/news/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBC",
"url": "https://www.cbc.ca/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}