Will someone be charged with a federal crime in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 42 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Castro | 2027-01-01 | 99.4% | — | $21K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CAS | ||
| James Comey | 2027-01-01 | 98.9% | — | $49K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…COM | ||
| John Brennan | 2027-01-01 | 45.0% | $917 | $17K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…BRE | ||
| Letitia James | 2027-01-01 | 29.0% | $385 | $14K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…JAM | ||
| Peter Strzok | 2027-01-01 | 24.0% | $113 | $2.1K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…STR | ||
| Jack Smith | 2027-01-01 | 22.0% | $2.4K | $11K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…SMI | ||
| Alvin Bragg | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | $336 | $2.4K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…BRA | ||
| Ilhan Omar | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | $235 | $19K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…OMA | ||
| James Clapper | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | $46 | $3.0K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CLA | ||
| Keith Ellison | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | $20 | $2.6K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…ELL | ||
| Jennifer Siebel Newsom | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | $51 | $965 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…NEW | ||
| Lisa Cook | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | $208 | $3.3K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…COO | ||
| Fani Willis | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | $63 | $1.4K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…WIL | ||
| Gavin Newsom | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | $158 | $1.4K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…NEW | ||
| Cassidy Hutchinson | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $166 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…HUT | ||
| Chris Krebs | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | $20 | $738 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…KRE | ||
| Lisa Monaco | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | $72 | $229 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…MON | ||
| Adam Schiff | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | $30 | $3.8K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…SCH | ||
| Christopher Wray | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $864 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…WRA | ||
| Miles Taylor | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | $2 | $162 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…TAY | ||
| Andrew Weissmann | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | $30 | $349 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…WEI | ||
| Reid Hoffman | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | $20 | $388 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…HOF | ||
| George Soros | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | $50 | $409 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…SOR | ||
| Jacob Frey | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $1.1K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…FRE | ||
| E. Jean Carroll | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | $179 | $1.1K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CAR | ||
| Mark Milley | 2027-01-01 | 9.9% | $49 | $680 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…MIL | ||
| Elissa Slotkin | 2027-01-01 | 9.5% | $34 | $517 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…SLO | ||
| Anthony Fauci | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | $168 | $4.8K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…FAU | ||
| Liz Cheney | 2027-01-01 | 8.7% | $4 | $781 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CHE | ||
| Hunter Biden | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | $76 | $1.1K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…BID | ||
| Mark Kelly | 2027-01-01 | 7.6% | $10 | $1.2K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…KEL | ||
| Tim Walz | 2027-01-01 | 7.2% | $23 | $18K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…WAL | ||
| Hillary Clinton | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | $51 | $2.6K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CLI | ||
| Tucker Carlson | 2027-01-01 | 6.8% | — | $432 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CAR | ||
| Joe Kent | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $160 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…KEN | ||
| Chris Christie | 2027-01-01 | 5.5% | — | $284 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CHR | ||
| Barack Obama | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | $45 | $4.0K | C | KXFEDERALCHA…OBA | ||
| Pam Bondi | 2027-01-01 | 4.8% | $5 | $887 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…BON | ||
| Joe Biden | 2027-01-01 | 4.7% | $57 | $587 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…BID | ||
| Jerome Powell | 2027-01-01 | 4.2% | $5 | $940 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…POW | ||
| Gustavo Petro | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | $12 | $374 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…PET | ||
| Bill Clinton | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $481 | C | KXFEDERALCHA…CLI |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Letitia James has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the Payout Criterion.
Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges. Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count. If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes. Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges. For groups of individuals, charges against any member of the specified group trigger the criterion.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" sources (17)
- ABC venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- BBC venue-listed
- Bloomberg venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- NPR venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- the New York Times venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Raúl Castro be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2026-05-20 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfederalcharge-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfederalcharge-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfederalcharge-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-69K59CM028",
"slug": "kxfederalcharge-27jan01",
"question": "Will someone be charged with a federal crime in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"federal-charges",
"us-politics",
"2027-resolution",
"criminal-justice",
"political-figures"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 42,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 195761,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NPR",
"url": "https://www.npr.org",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}