CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,330 EVENTS / ~30,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will someone be charged with a federal crime in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 42 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Raúl Castro 2027-01-01 99.4%
$21K
C KXFEDERALCHA…CAS
James Comey 2027-01-01 98.9%
$49K
C KXFEDERALCHA…COM
John Brennan 2027-01-01 45.0%
$917 $17K
C KXFEDERALCHA…BRE
Letitia James 2027-01-01 29.0%
$385 $14K
C KXFEDERALCHA…JAM
Peter Strzok 2027-01-01 24.0%
$113 $2.1K
C KXFEDERALCHA…STR
Jack Smith 2027-01-01 22.0%
$2.4K $11K
C KXFEDERALCHA…SMI
Alvin Bragg 2027-01-01 18.0%
$336 $2.4K
C KXFEDERALCHA…BRA
Ilhan Omar 2027-01-01 18.0%
$235 $19K
C KXFEDERALCHA…OMA
James Clapper 2027-01-01 17.0%
$46 $3.0K
C KXFEDERALCHA…CLA
Keith Ellison 2027-01-01 17.0%
$20 $2.6K
C KXFEDERALCHA…ELL
Jennifer Siebel Newsom 2027-01-01 17.0%
$51 $965
C KXFEDERALCHA…NEW
Lisa Cook 2027-01-01 16.0%
$208 $3.3K
C KXFEDERALCHA…COO
Fani Willis 2027-01-01 16.0%
$63 $1.4K
C KXFEDERALCHA…WIL
Gavin Newsom 2027-01-01 16.0%
$158 $1.4K
C KXFEDERALCHA…NEW
Cassidy Hutchinson 2027-01-01 15.0%
$166
C KXFEDERALCHA…HUT
Chris Krebs 2027-01-01 14.0%
$20 $738
C KXFEDERALCHA…KRE
Lisa Monaco 2027-01-01 14.0%
$72 $229
C KXFEDERALCHA…MON
Adam Schiff 2027-01-01 13.0%
$30 $3.8K
C KXFEDERALCHA…SCH
Christopher Wray 2027-01-01 13.0%
$864
C KXFEDERALCHA…WRA
Miles Taylor 2027-01-01 11.0%
$2 $162
C KXFEDERALCHA…TAY
Andrew Weissmann 2027-01-01 11.0%
$30 $349
C KXFEDERALCHA…WEI
Reid Hoffman 2027-01-01 11.0%
$20 $388
C KXFEDERALCHA…HOF
George Soros 2027-01-01 11.0%
$50 $409
C KXFEDERALCHA…SOR
Jacob Frey 2027-01-01 10.0%
$1.1K
C KXFEDERALCHA…FRE
E. Jean Carroll 2027-01-01 10.0%
$179 $1.1K
C KXFEDERALCHA…CAR
Mark Milley 2027-01-01 9.9%
$49 $680
C KXFEDERALCHA…MIL
Elissa Slotkin 2027-01-01 9.5%
$34 $517
C KXFEDERALCHA…SLO
Anthony Fauci 2027-01-01 9.0%
$168 $4.8K
C KXFEDERALCHA…FAU
Liz Cheney 2027-01-01 8.7%
$4 $781
C KXFEDERALCHA…CHE
Hunter Biden 2027-01-01 8.0%
$76 $1.1K
C KXFEDERALCHA…BID
Mark Kelly 2027-01-01 7.6%
$10 $1.2K
C KXFEDERALCHA…KEL
Tim Walz 2027-01-01 7.2%
$23 $18K
C KXFEDERALCHA…WAL
Hillary Clinton 2027-01-01 7.0%
$51 $2.6K
C KXFEDERALCHA…CLI
Tucker Carlson 2027-01-01 6.8%
$432
C KXFEDERALCHA…CAR
Joe Kent 2027-01-01 6.0%
$160
C KXFEDERALCHA…KEN
Chris Christie 2027-01-01 5.5%
$284
C KXFEDERALCHA…CHR
Barack Obama 2027-01-01 5.0%
$45 $4.0K
C KXFEDERALCHA…OBA
Pam Bondi 2027-01-01 4.8%
$5 $887
C KXFEDERALCHA…BON
Joe Biden 2027-01-01 4.7%
$57 $587
C KXFEDERALCHA…BID
Jerome Powell 2027-01-01 4.2%
$5 $940
C KXFEDERALCHA…POW
Gustavo Petro 2027-01-01 4.0%
$12 $374
C KXFEDERALCHA…PET
Bill Clinton 2027-01-01 1.0%
$481
C KXFEDERALCHA…CLI
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff ABC not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 42 markets · share this text
If Letitia James has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Charges filed in military courts are included. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the Payout Criterion. Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges. Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count. If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes. Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges. For groups of individuals, charges against any member of the specified group trigger the criterion.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC"
sources (17)
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
YES Will Raúl Castro be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027? kalshi 2026-05-20 99%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfederalcharge-27jan01/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfederalcharge-27jan01
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxfederalcharge-27jan01")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-69K59CM028",
  "slug": "kxfederalcharge-27jan01",
  "question": "Will someone be charged with a federal crime in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "federal-charges",
    "us-politics",
    "2027-resolution",
    "criminal-justice",
    "political-figures"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 42,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 195761,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 74,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "ABC",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "BBC",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NPR",
      "url": "https://www.npr.org",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://semafor.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →