Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in July 2026? [ resolved 2026-07-29 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike rates by 0bps | 2026-07-29 | 100.0% | $426K | $8.31M | A | KXFEDDECISIO…-H0 | ||
| Cut rates by >25bps | 2026-07-29 | 0.0% | $131 | $18K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…C26 | ||
| Cut rates by 25bps | 2026-07-29 | 0.0% | $1.1K | $46K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…C25 | ||
| Hike rates by 25bps | 2026-07-29 | 0.0% | $102K | $2.58M | A | KXFEDDECISIO…H25 | ||
| Hike rates by >25bps | 2026-07-29 | 0.0% | $6.0K | $140K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…H26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" sources (1) · single authority
- Federal Reserve source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| YES | Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 100% |
| NO | Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Odds stay near zero on a Fed hike above 25bps in July 1% · $32K 24h
- Kalshi prices a July rate hike above 25bps at just 1%, market dismisses the scenario outright.
- 24h volume of $32K is 56% of all-time, the largest single-day activity on this contract.
- Volume surge likely driven by pre-meeting positioning as the July FOMC decision approaches.
- Resolves on the Federal Reserve's announced rate decision at the July 2026 FOMC meeting.
- Market discounts any >25bps Fed move at July 2026 meeting 1% · $14K 24h
- 1% price, an outsized July hike is treated as a near-impossibility by the market.
- $13K in 24h is 81% of all-time; tiny absolute size but extreme session concentration signals a resolution chase.
- With the July FOMC meeting imminent, traders are settling this tail-risk contract ahead of the decision.
- Kalshi contract resolves on the July 2026 meeting outcome; flow is cleanup, not new conviction.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfeddecision-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfeddecision-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfeddecision-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BHTHYWRLH7",
"slug": "kxfeddecision-26jul",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in July 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-policy",
"interest-rates",
"monetary-policy",
"2026",
"central-banking"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11091088,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}