Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in December 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-09 (127D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike rates by 0bps | 2026-12-09 | 60.0% | $49 | $5.5K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…-H0 | ||
| Hike rates by 25bps | 2026-12-09 | 34.0% | $2 | $4.5K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…H25 | ||
| Cut rates by 25bps | 2026-12-09 | 6.0% | $10 | $711 | A | KXFEDDECISIO…C25 | ||
| Hike rates by >25bps | 2026-12-09 | 5.0% | — | $176 | A | KXFEDDECISIO…H26 | ||
| Cut rates by >25bps | 2026-12-09 | 1.0% | $3 | $22 | A | KXFEDDECISIO…C26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" sources (1) · single authority
Federal Reserve committed source
recent wire items
- Traders back a Fed December hike at 78% with heavy fresh volume 78% · $335K 24h
- At 78%, Kalshi pricing treats a December 25bp hike as the strong-probability outcome, not a coin flip.
- $334K in 24h represents 36% of all-time volume, a significant single-session commitment.
- Fresh money arriving here likely reflects a macro data print or Fed communication sharpening conviction.
- Contract resolves at the December 2026 FOMC meeting decision.
- Odds hold at 77% for a Fed hike in December 77% · $126K 24h
- Market prices a December 2026 Fed hike as the strong base case at 77%.
- Kalshi sees $125.6K in 24h, 37% of all-time volume, signaling concentrated fresh flow.
- Spike likely tied to macro data or Fed-speaker remarks sharpening December expectations.
- Resolves on the FOMC December 2026 rate decision.
- A Fed pause in December stays a long shot at 22% 22% · $48K 24h
- Market places only 22% odds on the Fed leaving rates unchanged in December 2026.
- Kalshi sees $47.9K in 24h, 30% of all-time volume, moving in tandem with the hike contract.
- Flow here is the mirror of Spike 1, traders actively arbitraging the hike vs. hold split.
- Resolves on the FOMC December 2026 decision.
- Traders pile into a December Fed hike at heavy odds 79% · $122K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 25bps Fed hike at the December 2026 meeting at 79%, strong consensus for tightening.
- $122K in 24h volume represents 36% of all-time contract turnover, a significant single-session conviction print.
- Fresh positioning likely driven by macro data or Fed communication sharpening rate-path expectations.
- Resolves on the December 2026 FOMC decision date.
- December 25bps hike holds above 50% as traders pile in 69% · $37K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 69% chance of a 25bps Fed hike at the December 2026 meeting, a clear lean.
- $37K in 24h is 57% of all-time volume, showing sustained rate-path interest extending to year-end.
- December pricing at 69% for a hike contrasts with October near-toss-up, implying a delayed move view.
- Resolves on the December 2026 FOMC decision.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfeddecision-26dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfeddecision-26dec |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfeddecision-26dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FKPVVZFMR8",
"slug": "kxfeddecision-26dec",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in December 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"2026",
"economic-decision"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10972,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}