Will the Federal Reserve hold rates at 4.25%-4.50% with at least one dissent at its June 2026 meeting? [ resolves 2026-06-17 (14D) ]
Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jun 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jun 2026 | 2026-06-17 | 70.0% | — | $7.3K | A | KXFEDCOMBO-2…0-0 | ||
| Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jun 2026 | 2026-06-17 | 31.0% | $49 | $3.3K | A | KXFEDCOMBO-2…-T0 | ||
| Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be 0 for Jun 2026 | 2026-06-17 | 1.0% | — | $3 | A | KXFEDCOMBO-2…C-0 | ||
| Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be >0 for Jun 2026 | 2026-06-17 | 1.0% | — | $6 | A | KXFEDCOMBO-2…-T0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur for Jun 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Federal Funds Rate Decision uses FEDDECISION, Dissents uses FOMCDISSENTCOUNT. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ recent wire items
- Fed holds with dissent at June FOMC: Kalshi 66%
- Kalshi puts 66% odds on the Fed holding rates at 4.25%-4.50% with at least one dissent at the June FOMC meeting.
- Hammack's public hike warning and her April dissent make the dissent component of this contract highly plausible; the hold component aligns with Kalshi rate ladders pricing below 3.75%.
- April CPI at 3.8% and core at 2.8% are the cited inflation triggers; energy costs up 17.9% annually add upward pressure.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics official FOMC statement; contract requires both a hold decision AND a named dissenting vote.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfedcombo-26jun/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfedcombo-26jun.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfedcombo-26jun") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MZGHWX20T0",
"slug": "kxfedcombo-26jun",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve hold rates at 4.25%-4.50% with at least one dissent at its June 2026 meeting?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"federal-reserve",
"interest-rates",
"monetary-policy",
"fomc-decision",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10565,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}