Will the Federal Reserve in July 2026 cut rates and have at least one dissent? [ resolved 2026-07-29 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change AND Dissents be >0 | 2026-07-29 | 100.0% | $757 | $7.3K | A | KXFEDCOMBO-2…-T0 | ||
| No change AND Dissents be 0 | 2026-07-29 | 0.0% | $380 | $2.8K | A | KXFEDCOMBO-2…0-0 | ||
| 25bp cut AND Dissents be 0 | 2026-07-29 | 0.0% | — | $22 | A | KXFEDCOMBO-2…C-0 | ||
| 25bp cut AND Dissents be >0 | 2026-07-29 | 0.0% | — | $58 | A | KXFEDCOMBO-2…-T0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur for Jul 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Federal Funds Rate Decision uses FEDDECISION, Dissents uses FOMCDISSENTCOUNT. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics venue-listed
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| YES | Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 100% |
| NO | Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be 0 for Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Traders back a Fed dissent alongside a July pause at 60% 60% · $24K 24h
- Kalshi prices no-change decision plus at least one dissent at 60%, a lean toward internal Fed friction.
- 64% of all-time volume hit in 24h, the contract's heaviest session ahead of the July meeting.
- Pre-meeting positioning intensifies as a hawkish dissent would signal policy divergence within the FOMC.
- Resolves on the July 2026 FOMC statement and meeting minutes release.
- Fed July dissent odds hold near 50% on hawk pressure Kalshi 60%
- Kalshi prices a 60% probability the Fed holds rates in July 2026 with at least one hawkish dissent.
- News reporting that patience is running thin among Fed officials is broadly consistent with the above-even Kalshi dissent odds.
- A hold-with-dissent outcome would signal mounting internal pressure without committing to a hike, bridging the gap to the 76% full-year hike probability on Polymarket.
- Kalshi resolves this via Bureau of Labor Statistics data; note the resolution source appears atypical for a Fed vote outcome and may reflect a linked inflation trigger.
- Fed July rate cut with dissent stays favored at 65 percent Kalshi 65%
- The Kalshi contract puts 65% odds on the Fed cutting rates at the July 2026 meeting with at least one dissent, per Bureau of Labor Statistics resolution.
- Services-led growth at a 2.3% pace is consistent with a cut occurring but a dissent being likely, as hawkish members could object to easing into an accelerating economy.
- The manufacturing contraction gives dovish members cover to cut, explaining why a cut remains the base case despite strong headline activity.
- Companion ladder CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3 puts only 48% odds on the upper bound exceeding 4.0% after the meeting, so the dominant scenario remains a cut to or hold near current levels, not a hike.
- Fed July cut with dissent stays a long shot Kalshi 63%
- The Kalshi prediction market puts 63% odds on the Fed cutting rates in July 2026 with at least one dissent.
- A services-driven growth print at 2.3% alongside factory contraction is a mixed signal, the market is not pricing a clean consensus cut.
- The 63% reading suggests markets see a cut as more likely than not, but the dissent component implies internal Fed division is expected.
- Cross-check: the Polymarket contract on the Fed making any rate decision between April and July sits at 79%, broadly consistent with an expected but contested July cut.
- Odds of a Fed July cut with dissent hold near 60% Kalshi 59%
- Kalshi prices a 59% chance the Fed cuts rates at the July 2026 meeting AND sees at least one dissent.
- Natixis forecasts a hold all year, yet Kalshi's majority probability favors a July cut with dissent, the market leans against the Natixis call.
- The ladder market (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) puts 99% on the upper bound staying above 3.50%, consistent with no dramatic easing, but not ruling out a single 25bp cut to 3.50%.
- Polymarket (CM-EVT-C0ZG1HDJQ1) prices 76% on the Fed making any rate decision between April and July, a softer bar that the 59% Kalshi dissent contract narrows further.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfedcombo-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfedcombo-26jul |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfedcombo-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-P6QJP9BW02",
"slug": "kxfedcombo-26jul",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve in July 2026 cut rates and have at least one dissent?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-funds-rate",
"fomc-decision",
"fed-dissents",
"monetary-policy",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10268,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}