Will the Federal Reserve make more than X rate changes before 2027? [ resolves 2027-04-01 (252D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0 | 2027-04-01 | 45.0% | — | $8.0K | C | KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E0 | ||
| Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1 | 2027-04-01 | 35.6% | — | $2.5K | C | KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E1 | ||
| Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2 | 2027-04-01 | 23.6% | $9 | $653 | C | KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E2 | ||
| Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 3 | 2027-04-01 | 3.5% | $4 | $90 | C | KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E3 | ||
| Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 4 | 2027-04-01 | 3.9% | — | $30 | C | KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E4 | ||
| Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 5 | 2027-04-01 | 2.0% | — | $6 | C | KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E5 | ||
| Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 6 | 2027-04-01 | 1.3% | — | $9 | C | KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E6 | ||
| Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 7 | 2027-04-01 | 0.1% | — | $1 | C | KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E7 | ||
| Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 8 | 2027-04-01 | 0.1% | — | $1 | C | KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E8 | ||
| Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 9 | 2027-04-01 | 2.0% | — | $7 | C | KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E9 | ||
| 10 | 2027-04-01 | 1.0% | — | $7 | C | KXFEDCHGCOUN…E10 | ||
| 11 | 2027-04-01 | 0.1% | — | $1 | C | KXFEDCHGCOUN…E11 | ||
| 12 | 2027-04-01 | 1.0% | — | $7 | C | KXFEDCHGCOUN…E12 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 0, then the market resolves to Yes.
A ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation source of record venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfedchgcount-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfedchgcount-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfedchgcount-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
"slug": "kxfedchgcount-27jan01",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve make more than X rate changes before 2027?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-reserve",
"interest-rates",
"monetary-policy",
"us-economy",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11244,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 36,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}