Will the Federal Reserve implement a specific number of rate changes before 2027? [ resolves 2027-04-01 (302D) ]

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by strike

kalshi 13 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
0	2027-04-01	51.0%	$10	$6.1K	A	`KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E0`
1	2027-04-01	30.4%	—	$1.6K	A	`KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E1`
2	2027-04-01	12.8%	—	$249	A	`KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E2`
3	2027-04-01	4.7%	—	$84	A	`KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E3`
4	2027-04-01	0.1%	—	$1	A	`KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E4`
5	2027-04-01	2.0%	—	$6	A	`KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E5`
6	2027-04-01	1.3%	—	$9	A	`KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E6`
7	2027-04-01	0.1%	—	$1	A	`KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E7`
8	2027-04-01	0.1%	—	$1	A	`KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E8`
9	2027-04-01	0.1%	—	$0	A	`KXFEDCHGCOUN…-E9`
10	2027-04-01	1.0%	$0	$7	A	`KXFEDCHGCOUN…E10`
11	2027-04-01	0.1%	—	$1	A	`KXFEDCHGCOUN…E11`
12	2027-04-01	1.0%	$0	$6	A	`KXFEDCHGCOUN…E12`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 13 markets · share this text

If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 0, then the market resolves to Yes. A ‘rate change’ means a single decision that changes the target range, regardless of size (e.g., a 50 bp hike counts as one). A later 50 bp cut counts as an additional rate change.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfedchgcount-27jan01/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfedchgcount-27jan01.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxfedchgcount-27jan01")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-L1N75SVJS1",
  "slug": "kxfedchgcount-27jan01",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve implement a specific number of rate changes before 2027?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "federal-reserve",
    "interest-rates",
    "monetary-policy",
    "us-economy",
    "2027"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 13,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 8023,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 96,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →