Federal funds rate upper bound, March 2027 meeting [ resolves 2027-03-24 (244D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 0% | 2027-03-24 | 99.0% | — | $774 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T0.00 | ||
| ≥ 0.25% | 2027-03-24 | 99.0% | $3 | $863 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T0.25 | ||
| ≥ 0.5% | 2027-03-24 | 98.0% | $1 | $458 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T0.50 | ||
| ≥ 0.75% | 2027-03-24 | 93.0% | — | $968 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T0.75 | ||
| ≥ 1% | 2027-03-24 | 93.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T1.00 | ||
| ≥ 1.25% | 2027-03-24 | 89.0% | — | $1.5K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T1.25 | ||
| ≥ 1.5% | 2027-03-24 | 89.0% | — | $789 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T1.50 | ||
| ≥ 1.75% | 2027-03-24 | 94.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T1.75 | ||
| ≥ 2% | 2027-03-24 | 98.0% | — | $3.3K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T2.00 | ||
| ≥ 2.25% | 2027-03-24 | 93.0% | — | $2.1K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T2.25 | ||
| ≥ 2.5% | 2027-03-24 | 93.0% | $4 | $1.1K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T2.50 | ||
| ≥ 2.75% | 2027-03-24 | 94.0% | $4 | $1.6K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2027-03-24 | 87.0% | — | $1.4K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2027-03-24 | 89.0% | — | $4.2K | A | KXFED-27MAR-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2027-03-24 | 35.0% | — | $839 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2027-03-24 | 18.0% | — | $404 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2027-03-24 | 4.0% | — | $129 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2027-03-24 | 1.0% | — | $25 | A | KXFED-27MAR-T4.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.00% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Mar 17, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors source of record venue-listed
- Federal Reserve's official website from rules text · editorial
- Federal Reserve statement from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Fed funds upper bound seen settling near 3.25 to 3.5 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi's ladder prices the federal funds upper bound most likely in the 3.25-3.50% range: 89% above 3.25%, but only 35% above 3.50%, with volume up 1,764% day over day.
- Goldman Sachs flags a 'new Fed era' of uncertainty; the ladder's sharp break at 3.50% shows markets pricing a high bar for further cuts.
- The separate Kalshi binary at 7% for a cut greater than 25 basis points this year reinforces that incremental easing, not bold action, is the dominant expectation.
- Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate announcement; the upper bound of the target range, not the effective rate, is the settlement metric.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-27mar/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-27mar |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-27mar") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-V37TZKN222",
"slug": "kxfed-27mar",
"question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, March 2027 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 22942,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve statement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}