The upper bound of the federal funds rate following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting [ resolves 2026-11-04 (104D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-11-04 | 97.0% | — | $1.5K | A | KXFED-26OCT-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-11-04 | 97.0% | — | $1.9K | A | KXFED-26OCT-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-11-04 | 90.0% | $86 | $3.8K | A | KXFED-26OCT-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-11-04 | 80.0% | — | $3.5K | A | KXFED-26OCT-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-11-04 | 43.0% | — | $1.0K | A | KXFED-26OCT-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-11-04 | 23.0% | $138 | $580 | A | KXFED-26OCT-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-11-04 | 4.0% | $1 | $27 | A | KXFED-26OCT-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-11-04 | 4.0% | $0 | $36 | A | KXFED-26OCT-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-11-04 | 2.0% | $0 | $24 | A | KXFED-26OCT-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-11-04 | 1.0% | — | $4 | A | KXFED-26OCT-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-11-04 | 1.0% | — | $15 | A | KXFED-26OCT-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Oct 28, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Oct 28, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors source of record venue-listed
- Federal Reserve's official website from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- September hike odds build as July hold nears consensus Kalshi ladder
- Ladder puts the post-meeting upper bound most likely in the 3.75-4.0% range: 74% above 3.75% but only 23% above 4.0%.
- Analyst commentary pointing to an Iran/oil-driven hold is consistent with the ladder centering near 3.75%, not a hike to 4.0% or above.
- The 23% probability above 4.0% reflects a residual hike tail, not a base case, despite hawkish analyst posturing.
- Kalshi contract CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 prices only 8% on a cut greater than 25 basis points this year, confirming the broader tightening-bias regime.
- Rate path under Chair Warsh wavers near 3.5-3.75 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices the relevant Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 91% above 3.50% but only 46% above 3.75%, with a notable 23% tail above 4.0%.
- Warsh's House testimony comes as Waller's hike signal raised expectations; the 23% above-4.0% tail is elevated relative to the near-term Waller ladder's 8% tail.
- The higher tail in this contract versus the Waller-linked ladder may reflect uncertainty about Chair Warsh's own policy leanings beyond the near term.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision; the 94% above 2.75% floor confirms no market expectation of cuts under this scenario.
- Fed funds upper bound seen holding in the 3.50-3.75 percent band Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder places the federal funds rate upper bound most likely in the 3.50-3.75% range: 91% above 3.50%, but only 46% above 3.75%.
- Despite hawkish inflation language in the July Fed Monetary Policy Report and Warsh testimony expectations, the market does not price a breakout above 3.75% as the base case.
- Companion ladder CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91 is broadly consistent: 92% above 3.50%, 46% above 3.75%, suggesting cross-contract coherence on the 3.50-3.75% pin.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcement; the sharp drop from 91% to 46% between the 3.50% and 3.75% strikes marks the market's line in the sand.
- Near-term Fed funds upper bound wavers on weak jobs data Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound at 3.50-3.75%: 91% above 3.50% but only 46% above 3.75%, showing a split between hold and one hike.
- A weak June jobs miss is in tension with the hawkish inflation framing; the 46% probability above 3.75% reflects that uncertainty directly.
- This ladder's 91% above 3.50% is slightly softer than the CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5 ladder's 98%, suggesting marginal extra doubt from the jobs data.
- Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official post-meeting rate announcement; downward revisions to prior months could shift the distribution further.
- Rate hold consensus wavers above 3.75 percent floor Kalshi ladder
- This Kalshi ladder prices 91% above 3.50% but collapses to 20% above 3.75% and 23% above 4.00%, showing a bifurcated distribution.
- The task force launch signals institutional uncertainty about the policy framework, yet the market assigns only 20-23% odds to any level above 3.75%.
- The 3-percentage-point spread between the 4.00% and 3.75% strikes (23% vs. 20%) is unusually flat, suggesting some residual ambiguity about the tail.
- Compare to the CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5 ladder: both anchor the mode at 3.50-3.75%, but this ladder shows a fatter right tail, implying slightly more uncertainty about a hike scenario.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26oct/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26oct |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26oct") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6BS28TS762",
"slug": "kxfed-26oct",
"question": "The upper bound of the federal funds rate following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"us-economy",
"interest-rates",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12323,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}