Will the Fed funds rate be below 4.5% after the December 2026 Federal Reserve meeting? [ resolves 2026-12-16 (146D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-12-16 | 96.0% | — | $16K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-12-16 | 94.0% | — | $5.9K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-12-16 | 95.0% | $1 | $10K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-12-16 | 84.0% | — | $18K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-12-16 | 66.0% | $30 | $12K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-12-16 | 31.0% | — | $2.0K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-12-16 | 6.0% | — | $352 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-12-16 | 13.0% | — | $113 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-12-16 | 3.0% | — | $11 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-12-16 | 3.0% | — | $27 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-12-16 | 1.0% | — | $9 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors source of record venue-listed
- Federal Reserve's official website from rules text · editorial
- Federal Reserve statement from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Fed funds upper bound seen holding near 3.75 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins the July 2026 fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range, pricing 72% above 3.75% but only 36% above 4.0%.
- The Fed held at 3.50-3.75% with a 9-3 vote, and the ladder's modal range matches the actual decision, consistent with the outcome reported.
- Three dissents for a hike created bond market tension, but Kalshi puts only 6% above 4.25%, meaning markets are not pricing a near-term catch-up hike.
- Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-4G3H125S53 prices 60% on a Fed rate decision between June and September, suggesting the hold path is expected to continue near term.
- Fed funds upper bound seen in the 3.75 to 4.0 percent range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 91% above 3.50%, 71% above 3.75%, but only 36% above 4.0%.
- The AP hold-expected story aligns with the ladder's steep cliff between 3.75% and 4.0%, showing markets see 4.0% as a stretch near-term.
- A companion ladder (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) prices 99% above 3.50% but only 23% above 3.75%, suggesting some disagreement across contracts on whether 3.75% is already in or still a risk.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve Economic Data; the gap between the two ladders may reflect different settlement horizons rather than conflicting views.
- Markets put long odds on a July Fed hike Kalshi ladder
- Ladder prices the July 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 65% above 3.75% but only 36% above 4.0%.
- News reports one-in-three hike odds from futures; the ladder is consistent, centering on a hold at 3.75% with a live tail toward 4.0%.
- Oil retreating from $100 toward $97 is cited as the key catalyst cooling hike bets; the ladder tail above 4.0% reflects residual risk.
- Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-P6QJP9BW02 prices only 59% on the Fed cutting rates with a dissent in July, a separate angle on meeting dynamics.
- Fed funds above 4 percent stays a coin flip after July meeting Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins the post-July Fed funds upper bound at 3.75-4.0%, pricing 81% above 3.50% but only 48% above 4.0%.
- News that 9 of 19 FOMC members favor higher rates is consistent with the ladder's near-coin-flip at 4.0%, reflecting genuine committee division.
- The 3.50% strike at 81% confirms markets see no rate cut; the question is whether Warsh delivers a hike, not a hold.
- Companion Kalshi ladder CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5 pins a prior meeting's outcome at 3.50-3.75% at 99% above 3.50%, suggesting any hike at the July meeting would be a first move in the current cycle.
- Fed funds upper bound consensus wavers near 3.75-4.0 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 94% above 3.50%, 60% above 3.75%, only 29% above 4.0%.
- TD Securities on-hold call aligns with the distribution's center of mass, but the 60% at-or-above 3.75% shows meaningful hike risk priced in.
- The 29% above 4.0% reflects a non-trivial tail for a hike beyond 3.75%, consistent with Warsh-era upside risk commentary circulating this week.
- A separate Kalshi ladder for an earlier meeting (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) shows 99% above 3.50% but only 6% above 3.75%, pointing to a later-dated hike as the market's preferred scenario.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26dec |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
"slug": "kxfed-26dec",
"question": "Will the Fed funds rate be below 4.5% after the December 2026 Federal Reserve meeting?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"federal-reserve",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 64018,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve statement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}