Federal funds rate upper bound, December 2026 meeting [ resolves 2026-12-16 (134D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-12-16 | 98.0% | — | $16K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-12-16 | 98.0% | — | $7.7K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-12-16 | 98.0% | — | $11K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-12-16 | 86.0% | — | $20K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-12-16 | 68.0% | $204 | $15K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-12-16 | 31.0% | $130 | $3.1K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-12-16 | 6.0% | — | $407 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-12-16 | 1.0% | — | $13 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-12-16 | 2.0% | $0 | $13 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-12-16 | 1.0% | — | $11 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-12-16 | 1.0% | — | $9 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Federal Reserve Board of Governors committed source Federal Reserve's official website from rules text Federal Reserve statement from rules text
recent wire items
- Fed funds rate seen topping out near 4 to 4.25 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts 78% odds on the federal funds upper bound clearing 4.0%, but collapses to just 1% above 4.25%, implying the market sees 4.0-4.25% as the likely ceiling.
- Fed officials and news commentary lean hawkish after the 165,000-job October print, but Kalshi pricing shows the market is not pricing a runaway hike cycle beyond one more move.
- The sharp cliff between the 4.0% and 4.25% strikes signals the market treats December as likely but views further hikes as a tail risk, not a base case.
- Resolution is determined by the actual federal funds rate upper bound set at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, as announced by the Federal Reserve.
- Fed funds upper bound seen near 4.0 to 4.25 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts the Fed funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 77% above 4.0% but only 1% above 4.25%.
- October payrolls surged 165,000 versus a 65,000 consensus, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said higher rates are likely needed, the ladder pricing is broadly consistent with one more hike.
- The sharp cliff from 77% at 4.0% to 1% at 4.25% signals markets see the terminal rate near 4.0-4.25%, not a prolonged tightening cycle.
- The Polymarket contract on a 2026 Fed emergency cut sits at 2%, corroborating the Kalshi ladder: markets price deliberate hiking, not a panic pivot.
- Fed funds above 4% after next meeting stays likely at 65% 65% · $72K 24h
- Market prices a 65% chance the federal funds rate upper bound stays above 4.00% post-meeting.
- $72K in 24h is 47% of all-time, nearly half of all trading compressed into one session.
- Election Day macro uncertainty and any surprise economic data are driving rates re-pricing.
- Kalshi contract resolves after the Fed's next scheduled policy decision.
- Fed funds above 4 percent stays near full pricing Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts 65% on the upper bound above 4.0%, with only 2% pricing above 4.25%, implying the market sees 4.0-4.25% as the likely ceiling.
- Barkin's hawkish framing is broadly consistent with the ladder, but the sharp drop from 65% to 2% above 4.25% signals the market sees 4.0% as near-terminal, not the start of a longer hike path.
- Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack separately echoed the gradual-hike stance, adding a second voice to the same narrative the ladder already reflects.
- The Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve official policy announcement; a surprise skip or pause at any upcoming meeting could collapse the 65% above-4.0% read quickly.
- Fed funds upper bound after next meeting seen near 4.0-4.25 percent Kalshi ladder
- Ladder prices 65% above 4.0% but only 2% above 4.25%, pinning the expected upper bound squarely at 4.0-4.25% after the next meeting.
- First Trust notes a December hike is signaled; the ladder is consistent, with 65% pricing at least one more hike to 4.25% or above.
- Volume surged 100.7x day over day, reflecting heavy positioning after the October hold announcement and midterm election results.
- Companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-9J8QJ6ZDT4) prices only 2% on an emergency Fed rate cut before 2027, confirming the ladder's hike-not-cut framing.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26dec |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
"slug": "kxfed-26dec",
"question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, December 2026 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"federal-reserve",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 73247,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve statement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}