Federal funds rate upper bound, December 2026 meeting [ resolves 2026-12-16 (134D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.75% | 2026-12-16 | 98.0% | — | $16K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2026-12-16 | 98.0% | — | $7.7K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2026-12-16 | 98.0% | — | $11K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-12-16 | 86.0% | — | $20K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2026-12-16 | 68.0% | $204 | $15K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-12-16 | 31.0% | $130 | $3.1K | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-12-16 | 6.0% | — | $407 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.25 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-12-16 | 1.0% | — | $13 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.50 | ||
| ≥ 4.75% | 2026-12-16 | 2.0% | $0 | $13 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T4.75 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-12-16 | 1.0% | — | $11 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T5.00 | ||
| ≥ 5.25% | 2026-12-16 | 1.0% | — | $9 | A | KXFED-26DEC-T5.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 9, 2026 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 9, 2026 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Federal Reserve Board of Governors committed source Federal Reserve's official website from rules text Federal Reserve statement from rules text
recent wire items
- Fed funds upper bound seen climbing toward 4 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the Fed funds upper bound squarely in the 4.0-4.25% range: 64% above 4.0%, only 17% above 4.25%.
- The distribution implies the market expects a single 25-basis-point hike from the current 3.75% upper bound, consistent with economist consensus in the USA Today report.
- A companion ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) prices 86% above 3.75% but only 1% above 4.0%, suggesting a slightly earlier or smaller move, a minor cross-ladder divergence worth watching.
- Resolution uses Federal Reserve official post-meeting rate announcement; no ambiguity on the settlement source.
- Fed funds upper bound nears full pricing at 4.0 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the September 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 63% above 4.0%, only 17% above 4.25%.
- August CPI surprise citing gas price spike aligns with the market's near-certainty of a hike; ladder is consistent with 25bp move.
- The sharp drop from 63% to 17% between the 4.0% and 4.25% strikes signals one hike priced in, not two consecutive moves at this meeting.
- Companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4) puts 90% on the Fed raising rates at all in 2026, corroborating the Kalshi ladder read.
- Fed funds upper bound seen near 4 percent after hike cycle Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound near 4.0%, with 88% above 3.75% but only 47% above 4.0%.
- Hot August CPI print is consistent with the market pricing a rate path that clears 3.75% but stops short of 4.25%, where odds drop to 13%.
- The sharp cliff between 4.0% (47%) and 4.25% (13%) reflects the market treating 4.0% as the ceiling of the most likely outcome, not a stepping stone.
- A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) shows 81% above 3.75% but only 2% above 4.0%, suggesting the two contracts differ on the precise terminal bound -- traders should note the resolution horizon difference.
- Fed funds upper bound seen near 3.75 to 4 percent Kalshi ladder
- Ladder prices 78% above 3.75% but only 38% above 4.00%, pinning the market-implied upper bound in the 3.75-4.00% range.
- Oil above $100 and hot PPI data align with the market holding the 3.75% strike as the likely post-meeting rate floor.
- The companion event CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91 shows a sharper cliff at 4.00%, just 2% above that level, suggesting both ladders agree the upper bound stops near 4.00%.
- Resolution follows the Federal Reserve's announced target range after the September 16 decision.
- Fed funds upper bound seen staying near 3.75-4 percent Kalshi ladder
- The rate ladder prices the upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 93% above 3.50%, 79% above 3.75%, but only 37% above 4.0%.
- The Reuters poll consensus for a hold is broadly consistent with the ladder's center of gravity near 3.75-4.0%, though the rising minority view for a hike aligns with the 37% probability priced above 4.0%.
- A separate Polymarket contract puts 76% on the Fed raising rates at some point in 2026-2028, implying the terminal question is one of timing rather than direction.
- Resolution ties to the actual Federal Open Market Committee statement; a hike above 4.0% would need to clear the 37% hurdle priced by the ladder today.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-26dec |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-26dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
"slug": "kxfed-26dec",
"question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, December 2026 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"federal-reserve",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 73247,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve statement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}