ETH trimmed mean price, August 31, 2026 [ resolved 2026-09-01 ]
Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026?
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $2,000 | 2026-08-19 | 100.0% | $429 | $12K | A | KXETHMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $2,250 | 2026-08-19 | 100.0% | $180 | $1.3K | A | KXETHMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $2,500 | 2026-08-21 | 100.0% | $65 | $281 | A | KXETHMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $2,750 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $20 | $34 | A | KXETHMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $3,000 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | — | $9 | A | KXETHMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $3,250 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | — | $20 | A | KXETHMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $3,500 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | — | $24 | A | KXETHMAXMON-…000 | ||
| ≥ $3,750 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $1 | $14 | A | KXETHMAXMON-…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | CF Benchmarks | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the price of ETH after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026 is ever above $
2000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.
At each minute throughout the market duration, a settlement value is calculated using every minute-by-minute CF ETHUSD_RTI price for ETH. For each of these individual minute-by-minute checks, the top 20% and bottom 20% of the cumulative dataset are removed before calculating the average of the remaining values. If the trimmed mean associated with any single minute during the period is above the threshold, the market resolves to Yes. This methodology reduces the impact of extreme price spikes or drops. The measurement period runs from when the market is issued until the specified end time. If CF Benchmarks data is unavailable or incomplete at the expiration time, affected strikes resolve to No. For cryptocurrencies with multiple versions, the Exchange will specify which version or ticker is being tracked.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "CF Benchmarks" sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3250.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2750.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3750.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| YES | Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-22 | 100% |
| YES | Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2250.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-19 | 100% |
| YES | Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Aug 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-19 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- ETH above $2,750 by August 31 stays near zero odds Kalshi ladder
- Polymarket ladder puts only 2% odds on ETH trimmed mean exceeding $2,750 by 11:59 PM ET on August 31.
- With ETH trading near $2,434 and crypto broadly under pressure from the rate-hike repricing, the near-zero probability above $2,750 is consistent with current spot levels.
- The broader crypto liquidation cascade following Warsh's speech makes a $300-plus ETH recovery before August 31 highly unlikely by market consensus.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle using a trimmed mean price methodology through the August 31 deadline.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxethmaxmon-eth-26aug31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxethmaxmon-eth-26aug31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxethmaxmon-eth-26aug31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XM950S28R8",
"slug": "kxethmaxmon-eth-26aug31",
"question": "ETH trimmed mean price, August 31, 2026",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"ethereum-price",
"crypto-volatility",
"august-2026",
"price-ceiling",
"spot-market"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13523,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "CF Benchmarks",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "CF Benchmarks",
"url": "https://www.cfbenchmarks.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CF ETHUSD_RTI",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}