Who will AOC endorse by the 2026 election? [ resolved 2026-11-03 ]
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Cori Bush in MO-01 before Nov 3, 2026?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darializa Avila Chevalier in NY-13 | 2026-10-26 | 100.0% | — | $4.6K | C | KXENDORSEAOC…CHE | ||
| Claire Valdez in NY-07 | 2026-10-26 | 100.0% | — | $5.3K | C | KXENDORSEAOC…VAL | ||
| Connie Chan in CA-11 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $687 | C | KXENDORSEAOC…CHA | ||
| Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan Senate | 2026-11-03 | 97.0% | — | $3.3K | C | KXENDORSEAOC…ELS | ||
| Cori Bush in MO-01 | 2026-11-03 | 31.0% | $126 | $1.6K | C | KXENDORSEAOC…BUS | ||
| Graham Platner in Maine Senate | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $109 | C | KXENDORSEAOC…PLA | ||
| Nida Allam in NC-04 | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $94 | C | KXENDORSEAOC…ALL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official social media accounts controlled by <person> | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez publicly endorses Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An endorsement requires a clear, affirmative statement of support for the nominee's election. The statement must be public (not private communications) and specifically reference the race or be clearly in context of the race. The endorsement must come directly from the person or through their official channels. Positive comments without explicit support, policy endorsements without nominee endorsement, or conditional endorsements do not qualify. Social media endorsements count only from verified accounts, and likes or retweets alone do not constitute endorsement. Quote tweets with additional supportive commentary do count. Sarcastic statements or those immediately clarified as jokes do not qualify.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official social media accounts controlled by <person>" sources (18)
official social media accounts controlled by <person> venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed official campaign announcements from <candidate> venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed ABC venue-listed Politico EU venue-listed NBC venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Axios venue-listed CNN venue-listed Fox News venue-listed Politico venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed official statements from organizations where <person> holds a leadership position venue-listed CBS venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Connie Chan in CA-11 before Nov 3, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-11-03 | 0% |
| YES | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Claire Valdez in NY-07 before Nov 3, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-10-26 | 100% |
| YES | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Darializa Avila Chevalier in NY-13 before Nov 3, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-10-26 | 100% |
| NO | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Nida Allam in NC-04 before Nov 3, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-14 | 1% |
| NO | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-13 | 1% |
| YES | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan Senate before Nov 3, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 97% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (6 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxendorseaoc-26nov03/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxendorseaoc-26nov03 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxendorseaoc-26nov03") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RPRRY6WKJ5",
"slug": "kxendorseaoc-26nov03",
"question": "Who will AOC endorse by the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"aoc-endorsement",
"2026-election",
"us-politics",
"candidate-support",
"maine-senate"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15662,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 58,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official social media accounts controlled by " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official social media accounts controlled by " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official campaign announcements from " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico EU",
"url": "https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#starmer-approval",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official statements from organizations where holds a leadership position" ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}