Will El Niño conditions be declared present by 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-14 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 2026 | 2026-06-14 | 100.0% | $130 | $8.3K | A | KXELNINO-26-JUL | ||
| Aug 1, 2026 | 2026-06-14 | 100.0% | — | $6.2K | A | KXELNINO-26-AUG | ||
| Sep 1, 2026 | 2026-06-14 | 100.0% | — | $6.2K | A | KXELNINO-26-SEP | ||
| Oct 1, 2026 | 2026-06-14 | 100.0% | — | $121 | A | KXELNINO-26-OCT | ||
| Jan 1, 2027 | 2026-06-14 | 100.0% | $19 | $174 | A | KXELNINO-26-JAN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | San Francisco Unified School District | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → " San Francisco Unified School District" sources (4) · single authority
- San Francisco Unified School District venue-listed
- the National Weather Service venue-listed
- National Centers for Environmental Information of the National Oceanic venue-listed
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center source of record from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will El Niño conditions be declared present before Jan 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 100% |
| YES | Will El Niño conditions be declared present before Oct 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 100% |
| YES | Will El Niño conditions be declared present before Sep 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 100% |
| YES | Will El Niño conditions be declared present before Aug 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 100% |
| YES | Will El Niño conditions be declared present before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-14 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxelnino-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxelnino-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxelnino-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PWF55Q01V0",
"slug": "kxelnino-26",
"question": "Will El Niño conditions be declared present by 2026?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"el-nino",
"weather-prediction",
"noaa-declaration",
"climate-conditions",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21044,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": " San Francisco Unified School District",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": " San Francisco Unified School District",
"url": "https://www.sfusd.edu/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the National Weather Service",
"url": "https://www.weather.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "National Centers for Environmental Information of the National Oceanic",
"url": "https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}