Will Trump declare an election emergency? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]

Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

kalshi 4 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency…	2026-11-03	23.0%	$52	$6.7K	A	`KXELECTIONEM…V04`
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency…	2026-11-03	12.0%	$46	$493	A	`KXELECTIONEM…P01`
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency…	2026-11-03	1.1%	—	$53	A	`KXELECTIONEM…L01`
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency…	2026-11-03	1.0%	—	$78	A	`KXELECTIONEM…Y01`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	the White House	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 4 markets · share this text

If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "the White House"

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxelectionemergency/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxelectionemergency.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxelectionemergency")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Q72X90WT99",
  "slug": "kxelectionemergency",
  "question": "Will Trump declare an election emergency?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-politics",
    "trump",
    "emergency-declaration",
    "2026",
    "executive-action"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 7357,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "the White House",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →