Will one or more countries report an Ebola case in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 17 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Uganda be reported before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $5.8K | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…UGA | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 72.0% | — | $6.9K | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…SUD | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 58.0% | $97 | $1.7K | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…BUR | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 50.0% | $35 | $8.5K | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…KEN | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in India be reported before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 43.0% | $14 | $4.3K | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…IND | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported… | 2027-01-01 | 40.0% | — | $484 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…CAR | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 38.0% | — | $489 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…ANZ | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Zambia be reported before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 35.0% | — | $460 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…AMB | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 33.0% | — | $347 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…ANG | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 25.0% | $260 | $8.3K | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…RWA | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jan 1,… | 2027-01-01 | 24.0% | $65 | $10K | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…USA | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Canada be reported before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 24.0% | $0 | $191 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…CAN | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Somalia be reported before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 22.0% | — | $468 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…OMA | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo be reported before… | 2027-01-01 | 20.0% | $220 | $13K | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…DOC | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in China be reported before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | $145 | $2.6K | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…CHI | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia be reported before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | $3 | $297 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…THI | ||
| Will a human case of Ebola disease in Nigeria be reported before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $293 | C | KXEBOLACOUNT…IGE |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in United States is officially reported after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Only confirmed cases qualify; suspected, probable, or presumptive cases do not. Animal cases do not qualify. The case must be confirmed in United States — a citizen of United States diagnosed elsewhere does not count. Imported cases diagnosed within United States do count. Resolution is based on the date of official confirmation, not symptom onset. Cases confirmed after Jan 1, 2027 do not qualify even if infection occurred earlier.
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxebolacountry-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxebolacountry-27.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxebolacountry-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DN28WM8N95",
"slug": "kxebolacountry-27",
"question": "Will one or more countries report an Ebola case in 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ebola-outbreak",
"disease-tracking",
"public-health",
"multi-country",
"2026-2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 17,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 64633,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}