Which states will experience exceptional drought by July 30? [ resolves 2026-08-07 (15D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 2026-08-07 | 99.0% | — | $2.6K | A | KXDROUGHTLEV…-NC | ||
| Oregon | 2026-08-07 | 33.0% | $294 | $2.6K | A | KXDROUGHTLEV…-OR | ||
| Washington | 2026-08-07 | 31.0% | $36 | $1.7K | A | KXDROUGHTLEV…-WA | ||
| Virginia | 2026-08-07 | 23.0% | $49 | $1.3K | A | KXDROUGHTLEV…-VA | ||
| California | 2026-08-07 | 13.0% | — | $530 | A | KXDROUGHTLEV…-CA | ||
| Iowa | 2026-08-07 | 6.0% | $9 | $63 | A | KXDROUGHTLEV…-IA | ||
| Minnesota | 2026-08-07 | 6.0% | $71 | $216 | A | KXDROUGHTLEV…-MN | ||
| Arizona | 2026-08-07 | 5.0% | $48 | $160 | A | KXDROUGHTLEV…-AZ | ||
| Kansas | 2026-08-07 | 1.0% | $3 | $23 | A | KXDROUGHTLEV…-KS | ||
| Illinois | 2026-08-07 | 1.0% | — | $13 | A | KXDROUGHTLEV…-IL | ||
| Missouri | 2026-08-07 | 1.0% | $35 | $2.0K | A | KXDROUGHTLEV…-MO | ||
| Indiana | 2026-08-07 | 1.0% | $4 | $17 | A | KXDROUGHTLEV…-IN | ||
| North Dakota | 2026-08-07 | 1.0% | $6 | $33 | A | KXDROUGHTLEV…-ND | ||
| Louisiana | 2026-08-07 | 1.0% | $11 | $31 | A | KXDROUGHTLEV…-LA | ||
| Tennessee | 2026-08-07 | 1.0% | $5 | $21 | A | KXDROUGHTLEV…-TN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | U.S. Drought Monitor | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the maximum drought monitor category in California during June 4–July 30, 2026 is at least D4, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "U.S. Drought Monitor" sources (1) · single authority
- U.S. Drought Monitor source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will North Carolina have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-18 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Missouri D4 drought by early July draws deep-conviction hedging 71% · $64K 24h
- 71% price, market assigns strong probability Missouri hits extreme D4 drought in the window.
- $63K in 24h is 90% of all-time; near the entire contract's history traded today.
- USDA drought monitor updates and crop stress reports likely driving fresh ag-desk and weather-risk attention.
- Resolution tied to the June 4, July window; outcome is imminent, compressing time value into directional flow.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdroughtlevel-26julld4/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxdroughtlevel-26julld4 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxdroughtlevel-26julld4") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3THMS6LQ79",
"slug": "kxdroughtlevel-26julld4",
"question": "Which states will experience exceptional drought by July 30?",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"drought-monitoring",
"summer-2026",
"us-climate",
"extreme-weather",
"seasonal-drought"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11311,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "U.S. Drought Monitor",
"resolution_source_url": "https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Drought Monitor",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "U.S. Drought Monitor",
"url": "https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}