Will someone drop out of their election? [ resolved 2026-08-18 ]
Will Ken Paxton drop out of the Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 before Aug 5, | 2026-08-05 | 0.0% | $3.3K | $7.2K | C | KXDROPOUTPRI…MIL | ||
| Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 before Aug 11, | 2026-08-11 | 0.0% | $8.0K | $8.0K | C | KXDROPOUTPRI…IL2 | ||
| James Fishback drop out of the Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | $43 | $819 | C | KXDROPOUTPRI…FIS | ||
| Cory Mills drop out of the FL-07 before Aug 18, | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | $4 | $140 | C | KXDROPOUTPRI…MIL | ||
| Paul Renner drop out of the Florida Governor before Aug 18, | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | $64 | C | KXDROPOUTPRI…REN | ||
| Eric Swalwell drop out of the California Governor primary before Jun 2, | 2026-08-18 | 99.9% | — | $33K | C | KXDROPOUTPRI…SWA | ||
| Sara Rodriguez drop out of the Wisconsin Governor primary before Aug 11, | 2026-08-18 | 99.0% | — | $7.3K | C | KXDROPOUTPRI…ROD | ||
| Mandela Barnes drop out of the Wisconsin Governor primary before Aug 11, | 2026-08-18 | 99.0% | — | $12K | C | KXDROPOUTPRI…BAR | ||
| Janet Mills drop out of the Maine Senate primary before Jun 9, | 2026-08-18 | 99.0% | — | $9.8K | C | KXDROPOUTPRI…MIL | ||
| Ken Paxton drop out of the Texas Senate runoff before May 26, | 2026-08-18 | 1.9% | — | $32 | C | KXDROPOUTPRI…PAX | ||
| Bridget Brink drop out of the MI-07 before Aug 4, | 2026-08-18 | 1.0% | $341 | $376 | C | KXDROPOUTPRI…BRI | ||
| Matt Maasdam drop out of the MI-07 before Aug 4, | 2026-08-18 | 1.0% | $255 | $307 | C | KXDROPOUTPRI…MAA | ||
| Chad Bianco drop out of the California Governor primary before Jun 2, | 2026-08-18 | 0.1% | — | $1 | C | KXDROPOUTPRI…BIA | ||
| John Cornyn drop out of the Texas Senate runoff before May 26, | 2026-08-18 | 0.1% | — | $2 | C | KXDROPOUTPRI…COR |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Fox News | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If James Fishback drops out of the 2026 Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
“Dropped out” means any of the following:
James Fishback announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign
James Fishback files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities
James Fishback publicly states they are no longer seeking the office
James Fishback endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running
James Fishback is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal
The following do NOT constitute dropping out:
Losing a primary or election
Failing to qualify for debates or ballots
Temporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing
Being eliminated through the normal election process
Reducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate
Key provisions:
Once someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter
“Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless James Fishback explicitly states they remain a candidate
For primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary
Withdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fox News" sources (13)
Fox News venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Semafor venue-listed ABC venue-listed CBS venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed Axios venue-listed CNN venue-listed Reuters venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed Politico venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will James Fishback drop out of the Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Cory Mills drop out of the FL-07 before Aug 18, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Paul Renner drop out of the Florida Governor before Aug 18, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-18 | 0% |
| YES | Will Mandela Barnes drop out of the Wisconsin Governor primary before Aug 11, 2026? | kalshi | by 2026-08-18 | 99% |
| NO | Will Bridget Brink drop out of the MI-07 before Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | by 2026-08-18 | 1% |
| NO | Will Matt Maasdam drop out of the MI-07 before Aug 4, 2026? | kalshi | by 2026-08-18 | 1% |
| NO | Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 before Aug 11, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 before Aug 5, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| YES | Will Sara Rodriguez drop out of the Wisconsin Governor primary before Aug 11, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-17 | 99% |
| NO | Will Chad Bianco drop out of the California Governor primary before Jun 2, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-02 | 0% |
| NO | Will John Cornyn drop out of the Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-05-26 | 0% |
| NO | Will Ken Paxton drop out of the Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-05-26 | 2% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (12 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Max Miller OH-07 dropout odds reach 29% as volume spikes before deadline 29% · $15K 24h
- 29% price implies roughly a 1-in-3 chance Miller exits the OH-07 race before Aug 11.
- 54% of all-time volume hit in 24h, the contract is at its most active session ever.
- Surge points to a credible withdrawal signal, statement, filing news, or candidate-side reporting.
- Resolves Aug 11; a 5-day window and rising odds suggest the market is treating this as live.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdropoutprimary-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxdropoutprimary-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxdropoutprimary-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-23BGQQPC61",
"slug": "kxdropoutprimary-26",
"question": "Will someone drop out of their election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"election-dropout",
"2026-election",
"primary-race",
"candidate-withdrawal",
"political-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 79256,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 58,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "Fox News",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}