Will a candidate drop out of their primary? [ resolves 2026-08-18 (26D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 8 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Eric Swalwell drop out of the California Governor primary before Jun 2,	2026-08-18	99.9%	—	$33K	C	`KXDROPOUTPRI…SWA`
Sara Rodriguez drop out of the Wisconsin Governor primary before Aug 11,	2026-08-18	99.0%	—	$7.3K	C	`KXDROPOUTPRI…ROD`
Janet Mills drop out of the Maine Senate primary before Jun 9,	2026-08-18	99.0%	—	$9.8K	C	`KXDROPOUTPRI…MIL`
James Fishback drop out of the Florida Governor primary before Aug 18,	2026-08-18	60.0%	$1.4K	$14K	C	`KXDROPOUTPRI…FIS`
Mandela Barnes drop out of the Wisconsin Governor primary before Aug 11,	2026-08-18	16.0%	—	$172	C	`KXDROPOUTPRI…BAR`
Ken Paxton drop out of the Texas Senate runoff before May 26,	2026-08-18	1.9%	—	$32	C	`KXDROPOUTPRI…PAX`
Chad Bianco drop out of the California Governor primary before Jun 2,	2026-08-18	0.1%	—	$1	C	`KXDROPOUTPRI…BIA`
John Cornyn drop out of the Texas Senate runoff before May 26,	2026-08-18	0.1%	—	$2	C	`KXDROPOUTPRI…COR`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Fox News	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 8 markets · share this text

If James Fishback drops out of the 2026 Florida Governor primary before Aug 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. “Dropped out” means any of the following: James Fishback announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign James Fishback files official withdrawal paperwork with relevant election authorities James Fishback publicly states they are no longer seeking the office James Fishback endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running James Fishback is disqualified by election authorities or courts and does not appeal The following do NOT constitute dropping out: Losing a primary or election Failing to qualify for debates or ballots Temporarily suspending campaign activities without withdrawing Being eliminated through the normal election process Reducing campaign activities while remaining a candidate Key provisions: Once someone drops out per above criteria, the market resolves YES even if they later re-enter “Suspending” a campaign is treated as dropping out unless James Fishback explicitly states they remain a candidate For primary races, dropping out of the presidential race entirely counts as dropping out of that party’s primary Withdrawing from the race counts even if the person remains on the ballot

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fox News"

sources (13)

Fox News venue-listed
MSNBC venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
Semafor venue-listed
ABC venue-listed
CBS venue-listed
The New York Times venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed
Axios venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
Politico venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
YES	Will Sara Rodriguez drop out of the Wisconsin Governor primary before Aug 11, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-17`	`99%`
NO	Will Chad Bianco drop out of the California Governor primary before Jun 2, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-06-02`	`0%`
NO	Will John Cornyn drop out of the Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-05-26`	`0%`
NO	Will Ken Paxton drop out of the Texas Senate runoff before May 26, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-05-26`	`2%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdropoutprimary-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxdropoutprimary-26`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxdropoutprimary-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-23BGQQPC61",
  "slug": "kxdropoutprimary-26",
  "question": "Will a candidate drop out of their primary?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "primary-dropout",
    "2026-election",
    "candidate-attrition",
    "us-politics",
    "primary-elections"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 8,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 64090,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 58,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Fox News",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →