Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z | 2027-01-01 | 50.0% | $74 | $35K | C | KXDIAZOUT-MD…P01 | ||
| Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z | 2027-01-01 | 41.0% | $60 | $5.9K | C | KXDIAZOUT-MD…G01 | ||
| Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-07-01T14:00:00.000Z | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | $284 | $8.6K | C | KXDIAZOUT-MD…L01 | ||
| Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-04-01T14:00:00.000Z | 2027-01-01 | 1.0% | — | $1.9K | C | KXDIAZOUT-MD…R01 | ||
| Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-06-01T14:00:00.000Z | 2027-01-01 | 0.2% | — | $563 | C | KXDIAZOUT-MD…N01 | ||
| Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-05-01T14:00:00.000Z | 2027-01-01 | 0.1% | — | $121 | C | KXDIAZOUT-MD…Y01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before April 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba. For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdiazout-mdc/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxdiazout-mdc.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxdiazout-mdc") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FTNVG3MMR2",
"slug": "kxdiazout-mdc",
"question": "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"cuban-politics",
"leadership-transition",
"2026-resolution",
"political-departure",
"caribbean-governance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 52163,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 50,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}