ICE removals, FY2027 [ resolves 2027-04-01 (240D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 200000 | 2027-04-01 | 98.9% | — | $3.4K | C | KXDEPORTATIO…000 | ||
| > 300000 | 2027-04-01 | 95.4% | — | $6.4K | C | KXDEPORTATIO…000 | ||
| > 400000 | 2027-04-01 | 99.0% | $248 | $24K | C | KXDEPORTATIO…000 | ||
| > 450000 | 2027-04-01 | 71.0% | $1 | $3.0K | C | KXDEPORTATIO…000 | ||
| > 500000 | 2027-04-01 | 27.0% | $68 | $7.6K | C | KXDEPORTATIO…000 | ||
| > 600000 | 2027-04-01 | 5.0% | $13 | $1.8K | C | KXDEPORTATIO…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Statistical Review of World Energy | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of ICE removals is above 200,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will resolve once complete data is available for FY2026.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy" sources (1)
the Statistical Review of World Energy venue-listed
recent wire items
- ICE removals in FY2026 seen landing in 400K-450K range Kalshi ladder
- Ladder puts 94% odds on removals exceeding 400,000 but only 46% on exceeding 450,000, implying the market consensus centers in the 400K-450K band.
- Miller's promotion as the architect of the administration's immigration crackdown is consistent with market pricing for a high but not record-breaking removal total.
- The sharp drop from 94% at 400K to 46% at 450K shows meaningful uncertainty about whether enforcement intensity will push into the upper range.
- Resolves via official ICE/DHS FY2026 removal statistics; fiscal year timing and reporting lag could affect settlement date.
- ICE removals in FY2026 seen above 400,000 but below 500,000 Kalshi ladder
- Prediction market ladder implies FY2026 ICE removals in the 400,000-450,000 range: 94% above 400K but only 45% above 450K.
- The 22% probability above 500K shows the market treats a half-million removals as unlikely, even amid the enforcement surge AP documents.
- The 98% probability above 300K confirms the market fully prices in a historically high removal year; the debate is only about the upper end of the range.
- Resolves via official DHS or ICE fiscal-year statistics; the FY2026 close provides a clean settlement date.
- ICE removals in FY2026 seen near 400K-450K, well above floor Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices ICE removals in the 400K-450K range: 96% above 400K, collapsing to 16% above 450K and only 5% above 500K.
- Senator Jim Banks's legislative push to lock in enforcement levels is consistent with a market that sees removals running well above historical norms but plateauing near 400K-450K.
- The sharp drop from 96% to 16% between the 400K and 450K strikes implies the market sees the current pace as near its ceiling absent new statutory authority.
- Resolution is via FY2026 official ICE removal data; fiscal year ends September 30, 2026, meaning the final figure is imminent.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdeportations-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxdeportations-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxdeportations-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-F0MWBBP842",
"slug": "kxdeportations-27jan01",
"question": "ICE removals, FY2027",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-immigration",
"ice-enforcement",
"deportation-policy",
"trump-administration",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 46004,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 78,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}