Will Mette Frederiksen become Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026 Danish general election? [ resolves 2027-03-24 (294D) ]
Will Pia Olsen Dyhr become Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026 Danish general election?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mette Frederiksen become Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026… | 2027-03-24 | 99.3% | $175 | $44K | C | KXDENMARKPM-…FRE | ||
| Will Pia Olsen Dyhr become Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026 Danish… | 2027-03-24 | 5.0% | — | $1 | C | KXDENMARKPM-…DYH | ||
| Will Lars Lokke Rasmussen become Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026… | 2027-03-24 | 4.0% | — | $8 | C | KXDENMARKPM-…RAS | ||
| Will Troels Lund Poulsen become Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026… | 2027-03-24 | 0.2% | — | $27 | C | KXDENMARKPM-…POU |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Lars Løkke Rasmussen becomes Prime Minister of Denmark as a result of government formation following the 2026 Danish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Mar 24, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this contract, these rules will satisfy the payout criterion:
The person must be formally appointed, sworn in, or invested according to the country's constitutional procedures and command the confidence of the parliament/legislature through an investiture vote, formal approval, or constitutional convention.
They must exercise the full powers of the office, not serve in a caretaker or acting capacity from the previous government.
The appointment must stem from the government formation process following the specified election.
Serving as caretaker pending government formation, being designated to form a government but not yet invested, leading the party with most seats without forming government, being named as designate without completing constitutional requirements, or holding the position temporarily during coalition negotiations do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion.
Special situations:
If no government forms by the deadline, all markets resolve to No except "No one" if that option exists.
If new elections are called before government formation, markets resolve immediately.
For rotating arrangements, the first person to meet all criteria resolves to Yes.
If the person leading a party dies before taking office, their market resolves to last fair price and their successor may resolve to Yes.
Markets for persons not explicitly listed resolve to "Other" if that option exists.
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdenmarkpm-26mar24/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxdenmarkpm-26mar24.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxdenmarkpm-26mar24") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Z70N8FWD96",
"slug": "kxdenmarkpm-26mar24",
"question": "Will Mette Frederiksen become Prime Minister of Denmark following the 2026 Danish general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"danish-politics",
"prime-minister",
"election-2026",
"scandinavia",
"government-formation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 44125,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.parliament.go.ke/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}