U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026? [ resolves 2027-01-18 (179D) ]
Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 5% | 2027-01-18 | 9.0% | — | $5.9K | A | KXDEFGDP-26O…-T5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the U.S. federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2026, as reported in the U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026, is below 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed
- U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026 source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxdefgdp-26oct20/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxdefgdp-26oct20 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxdefgdp-26oct20") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9XGJ666Z94",
"slug": "kxdefgdp-26oct20",
"question": "U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-fiscal-policy",
"deficit-ratio",
"economic-indicators",
"fy2026",
"budget-metrics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5937,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget Joint Statement on Budget Results for Fiscal Year 2026",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}