Will crypto market structure legislation become law by 2027? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2028-01 ]
Will a crypto market structure bill become law before Apr 1, 2027?
kalshi: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before May 1, 2026 | 2026-05-01 | 0.1% | — | $570 | A | KXCRYPTOSTRU…MAY | ||
| Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jun 1, 2026 | 2026-06-01 | 0.1% | — | $599 | A | KXCRYPTOSTRU…JUN | ||
| Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jul 1, 2026 | 2026-07-01 | 0.1% | — | $320 | A | KXCRYPTOSTRU…JUL | ||
| Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Aug 1, 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.9% | $182 | $6.5K | A | KXCRYPTOSTRU…AUG | ||
| Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Sep 1, 2026 | 2026-09-01 | 3.0% | $2.5K | $6.3K | A | KXCRYPTOSTRU…SEP | ||
| Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Oct 1, 2026 | 2026-10-01 | 18.0% | $1.8K | $10K | A | KXCRYPTOSTRU…OCT | ||
| Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Nov 1, 2026 | 2026-11-01 | 23.0% | $1.0K | $5.1K | A | KXCRYPTOSTRU…NOV | ||
| Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Dec 1, 2026 | 2026-12-01 | 34.0% | $802 | $11K | A | KXCRYPTOSTRU…DEC | ||
| Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 37.0% | $11K | $268K | A | KXCRYPTOSTRU…-27 | ||
| Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Feb 1, 2027 | 2027-02-01 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXCRYPTOSTRU…FEB | ||
| Will a crypto market structure bill become law before Apr 1, 2027 | 2027-04-01 | 55.0% | $2.2K | $6.6K | A | KXCRYPTOSTRU…APR | ||
| Will a crypto market structure bill become law before Jul 1, 2027 | 2027-07-01 | 59.0% | $1.5K | $4.3K | A | KXCRYPTOSTRU…JUL | ||
| Will a crypto market structure bill become law before Oct 1, 2027 | 2027-10-01 | 63.0% | $60 | $8.0K | A | KXCRYPTOSTRU…T01 | ||
| Will crypto market structure legislation become law before Jan 1, 2028 | 2028-01-01 | 67.0% | $199 | $3.7K | A | KXCRYPTOSTRU…-28 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | White House | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
For purposes of this Contract, "crypto market structure legislation" means any bill that does all of the following:
Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (but not solely for stablecoins); AND
Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; AND
Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications.
The following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:
Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure;
Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework;
Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs);
Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities;
Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions;
Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules (only Congressional legislation counts);
Bills that pass only one chamber of Congress;
Bills that are vetoed and not overridden;
State legislation of any kind
Examples that WOULD meet the Payout Criterion:
The Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, if passed by both chambers and signed into law;
The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), if passed by both chambers and signed into law;
Any omnibus bill that includes comprehensive crypto market structure provisions as described above.
Examples that would NOT meet the Payout Criterion:
The GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation);
The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific);
A bill that passes the House but not the Senate;
An executive order directing agencies to study crypto regulation.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House" sources (2) · single authority
- White House venue-listed
- Library of Congress source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jun 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Crypto market structure law by 2027 anchors at modest 38 percent Kalshi 38%
- Kalshi prices crypto market structure legislation becoming law by 2027 at 38% despite regulatory momentum.
- SEC rulemaking entering White House review is a procedural step consistent with progress, but the market stops well short of pricing passage as likely.
- Senate Banking Committee is separately expected to take up the crypto market structure bill within weeks, yet the Kalshi contract is unmoved from sub-50%.
- Resolves via White House confirmation of presidential signature on qualifying crypto market structure legislation by the 2027 deadline.
- Crypto market structure law by 2027 holds near even pricing Kalshi 45%
- Kalshi prices 45% on crypto market structure legislation becoming law by 2027, resolves via White House.
- Lummis's urgency framing is not matched by a majority-odds market; the 45% price reflects genuine legislative doubt despite momentum.
- The CFTC approving the first US Bitcoin perpetual contract (Story 30) adds regulatory context suggesting incremental crypto legitimization without full legislative resolution.
- Resolves via White House confirmation of presidential signature on qualifying crypto market structure legislation before the 2027 deadline.
- US crypto market structure bill by year-end wavers near coin flip Kalshi 39%
- The Kalshi prediction market puts 39% on a US crypto market structure bill becoming law before January 1, 2027.
- Japan's landmark tax cut passage raises the regulatory comparison bar, but the Kalshi contract at 39% shows the US market is not pricing a high-confidence legislative outcome this year.
- The companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744 puts 40% on the Clarity Act specifically being signed by end of 2026, a near-identical read that corroborates the 39% Kalshi figure across venues.
- Kalshi contract resolves via White House confirmation of bill signing; the two-month window to year-end is the primary resolution risk given congressional calendar uncertainty.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcryptostructure-26jan/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcryptostructure-26jan |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcryptostructure-26jan") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-25SXVWH5D4",
"slug": "kxcryptostructure-26jan",
"question": "Will crypto market structure legislation become law by 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"crypto-regulation",
"market-structure",
"us-legislation",
"2027",
"financial-markets"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 331989,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "White House",
"resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "White House",
"url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
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{
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"url": "https://congress.gov",
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],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}