Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before August 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-01 (9D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 99.0% | — | $58K | C | KXCRITICALIT…ALO | ||
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 96.0% | — | $25K | C | KXCRITICALIT…RES | ||
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 94.0% | — | $85K | C | KXCRITICALIT…LAR | ||
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 14.0% | $13 | $5.6K | C | KXCRITICALIT…MIC | ||
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 7.0% | $0 | $1.7K | C | KXCRITICALIT…ANT | ||
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 6.0% | $10 | $2.5K | C | KXCRITICALIT…KLO | ||
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 5.0% | — | $232 | C | KXCRITICALIT…AST | ||
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 5.0% | — | $290 | C | KXCRITICALIT…IAL | ||
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 1.0% | — | $57 | C | KXCRITICALIT…EEP | ||
| Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 1.0% | — | $42 | C | KXCRITICALIT…URA |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the International Atomic Energy Agency | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Aalo Atomics achieves criticality before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the International Atomic Energy Agency" sources (23) · single authority
- the International Atomic Energy Agency source of record venue-listed
- company's official social media accounts venue-listed
- World Nuclear News venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- Energy Central venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- company Chief Executive Officer venue-listed
- Nuclear News venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- Utility Dive venue-listed
- company's official website venue-listed
- company's SEC filings venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- company venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- Nuclear Engineering International venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-06 | 99% |
| YES | Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-23 | 96% |
| PENDING | Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-23 | 94% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcriticality-26aug/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcriticality-26aug |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcriticality-26aug") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-N7GQBKNGS8",
"slug": "kxcriticality-26aug",
"question": "Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before August 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"nuclear-power",
"energy-technology",
"criticality-milestone",
"2026",
"commercial-deployment"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 178675,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 50,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "the International Atomic Energy Agency",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the International Atomic Energy Agency",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the International Atomic Energy Agency",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "company's official social media accounts",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "World Nuclear News",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Energy Central",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "company Chief Executive Officer",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Nuclear News",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Utility Dive",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "company's official website",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "company's SEC filings",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "company",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Nuclear Engineering International",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}