Will inflation in July 2026 be measured by year-over-year CPI? [ resolves 2026-08-12 (70D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 21 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3% | 2026-08-12 | 99.0% | — | $450 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.0 | ||
| ≥ 3.1% | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.1 | ||
| ≥ 3.2% | 2026-08-12 | 99.0% | — | $450 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.2 | ||
| ≥ 3.3% | 2026-08-12 | 99.0% | — | $203 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.3 | ||
| ≥ 3.4% | 2026-08-12 | 99.0% | — | $680 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.4 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-08-12 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.5 | ||
| ≥ 3.6% | 2026-08-12 | 97.0% | — | $532 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.6 | ||
| ≥ 3.7% | 2026-08-12 | 99.0% | — | $552 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.7 | ||
| ≥ 3.8% | 2026-08-12 | 99.0% | — | $2.1K | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.8 | ||
| ≥ 3.9% | 2026-08-12 | 99.0% | — | $445 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…3.9 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-08-12 | 99.0% | — | $5.4K | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.0 | ||
| ≥ 4.1% | 2026-08-12 | 91.0% | — | $5.5K | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.1 | ||
| ≥ 4.2% | 2026-08-12 | 54.0% | $1 | $5.6K | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.2 | ||
| ≥ 4.3% | 2026-08-12 | 6.0% | $0 | $643 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.3 | ||
| ≥ 4.4% | 2026-08-12 | 6.0% | — | $333 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.4 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-08-12 | 8.0% | $0 | $382 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.5 | ||
| ≥ 4.6% | 2026-08-12 | 5.0% | — | $184 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.6 | ||
| ≥ 4.7% | 2026-08-12 | 6.0% | — | $204 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.7 | ||
| ≥ 4.8% | 2026-08-12 | 12.0% | — | $375 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.8 | ||
| ≥ 4.9% | 2026-08-12 | 1.0% | — | $63 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…4.9 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-08-12 | 3.0% | — | $210 | A | KXCPIYOY-26J…5.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.0% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the
government shutdown
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpiyoy-26jul/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpiyoy-26jul.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcpiyoy-26jul") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XP5XZNK7W3",
"slug": "kxcpiyoy-26jul",
"question": "Will inflation in July 2026 be measured by year-over-year CPI?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"inflation",
"cpi",
"us-economy",
"macroeconomics",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 21,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24304,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}