Will the Consumer Price Index be released for November? [ resolves 2027-03-11 (219D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ -0.1% | 2027-03-11 | 90.0% | — | $3.3K | A | KXCPI-26NOV-T-0.1 | ||
| ≥ 0% | 2027-03-11 | 99.0% | — | $1.6K | A | KXCPI-26NOV-T0.0 | ||
| ≥ 0.1% | 2027-03-11 | 81.0% | — | $1.8K | A | KXCPI-26NOV-T0.1 | ||
| ≥ 0.2% | 2027-03-11 | 92.0% | — | $1.6K | A | KXCPI-26NOV-T0.2 | ||
| ≥ 0.3% | 2027-03-11 | 99.0% | — | $2.1K | A | KXCPI-26NOV-T0.3 | ||
| ≥ 0.4% | 2027-03-11 | 93.0% | — | $2.5K | A | KXCPI-26NOV-T0.4 | ||
| ≥ 0.5% | 2027-03-11 | 89.0% | — | $3.8K | A | KXCPI-26NOV-T0.5 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than -0.1% (single-decimal) in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will always close at 8:25 AM ET on the scheduled day of the data release (December 10, 2026). Please note: the Expiration Value is the single-decimal value published at the Source Agency. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- CPI for November seen flat to slightly lower by consensus Kalshi ladder
- Ladder implies the market-consensus November 2026 CPI monthly change lands in the 0.0-0.1% range: 60% above 0.0%, only 37% above 0.1%, and 73% above -0.1%.
- Bloomberg's forecast of a CPI cooldown is consistent with the ladder's heavy weighting toward flat-to-modest gains; trading volume surged 3,443% day-over-day, flagging strong fresh interest.
- The sharp drop from 60% at 0.0% to 10% at 0.2% shows the market sees minimal risk of an upside inflation surprise this month.
- Resolution uses the official BLS CPI release; any rounding near the 0.05% boundary could shift bracket outcomes significantly.
- November CPI monthly change seen slightly negative on Kalshi Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts 70% odds on November 2026 CPI rising more than -0.1%, and 22% on clearing 0.0%, implying the market-implied center is in the -0.1% to 0.0% range.
- The weak CPI distribution sits in tension with Fed hawkishness: Daly and other officials signal more hikes, but the Kalshi CPI ladder does not price an inflationary surge.
- The implied flat-to-slightly-negative monthly print, if realized, could complicate the case for a December rate hike despite strong jobs data.
- Resolves via the official CPI release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; the ladder uses a greater-than framing, so each strike is an independent binary.
- November CPI month-over-month stays near flat to slightly negative Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts November 2026 CPI month-over-month in the -0.1% to 0.0% range: 70% above -0.1% but only 34% above 0.0%.
- The U.S. Bank outlook flags persistent inflation eroding spending power even as the labor market stays resilient, the near-flat CPI pricing suggests markets see inflation cooling modestly on a monthly basis.
- Only 10% probability above 0.2% and 7% above 0.3% indicates very little expectation of a renewed monthly surge in consumer prices.
- The Fed funds ladder (see wire above) prices one more hike, if November CPI prints flat or negative, that could be the last catalyst needed to pause.
- November CPI consensus leans mildly positive, below 0.2 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices November 2026 CPI in the +0.1% to +0.2% range: 63% above 0.1%, 48% above 0.2%, dropping to 22% above 0.3%.
- September PCE reacceleration to 3.6% is a hawkish backdrop, but the Kalshi distribution for November CPI does not price an outsized spike, suggesting the market is not yet pricing a second-order PCE-to-CPI spillover.
- The 84% probability above 0.0% means deflation or flat CPI is largely ruled out; only a modest positive print is the consensus expectation.
- The core CPI annual rate ladder (event CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9 from story 6) puts 60% on year-over-year core CPI above 2.8%, offering a longer-horizon complement that confirms persistent above-target pricing.
- November CPI seen rising, odds cluster near 0.1-0.2 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins November 2026 CPI month-over-month in the 0.1-0.2% range: 88% above -0.1%, 63% above 0.1%, only 46% above 0.2%.
- Trading volume on the Kalshi November CPI ladder surged roughly 1,984x day over day, signaling intense fresh attention as earnings week spotlights inflation.
- The sharp drop from 63% above 0.1% to only 22% above 0.3% shows the market prices a mild but positive print, not a hot overshoot.
- The October CPI Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-N58KJP0K82) implies 0.2-0.3% with volume also up 217x, suggesting the market prices sequential mild acceleration into year-end.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpi-26nov/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpi-26nov |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxcpi-26nov") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
"slug": "kxcpi-26nov",
"question": "Will the Consumer Price Index be released for November?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"inflation",
"cpi",
"november-2026",
"us-economics",
"economic-indicator"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16824,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Source Agency",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}